Nottingham Forest v Leeds: Whites' title hopes to take a hit

Mark O'Haire
07 February 2020

Leeds have registered just two Championship triumphs since mid-December

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Promotion-chasing Nottingham Forest and Leeds lock horns at the City Ground on Saturday evening. Mark O'Haire looks for the best value bets from the eye-catching Championship contest.

"It’s landed in all bar eight of the Reds’ 30 fixtures this term, plus seven of Leeds’ nine matches during their recent lean spell"

Nottingham Forest v Leeds
Saturday February 8, 17:30
Sky Sports

Lamouchi annoyed by Forest's latest loss

Nottingham Forest boss Sabri Lamouchi was visibly frustrated after seeing his side's seven-match unbeaten streak ended at Birmingham last weekend. The Frenchman felt Forest were "so naive and sometimes stupid" as they allowed the Blues to come from behind at St Andrew's to pocket the points with a 2-1 triumph after Tiago Silva had given the Tricky Trees the lead.

Despite taking an early advantage, the game turned in the space of a few minutes in the first half. After Lewis Grabban saw a penalty saved for the Reds, Birmingham equalised barely 60 seconds later; Grabban also hit the bar and had another effort cleared off the line as the Reds pressed, only to concede a decisive second strike of their own 15 minutes from time.

Lamouchi admitted his team only had themselves to blame as they dropped vital points in the promotion race, saying, "I am very disappointed because we started the game in the right way. I'm just so upset, disappointed, because we give them the three points. We controlled the game until the penalty. Tonight, we were not clever."

Tyler Walker and Adama Diakhaby featured off the bench against Birmingham but fellow new signings Nuno da Costa and Gaetan Bong were not included at St Andrew's. Meanwhile, midfielder Samba Sow hopes to return to the fold after injury.

Leeds surrender top spot

Not for the first time in recent weeks, Leeds relinquished their lead at the top of the Championship following an unexpected defeat. The Whites were beaten 1-0 at home to struggling Wigan in their most recent outing, with Marcelo Bielsa's men once again paying the price for missing a catalogue of presentable opportunities at Elland Road.

Leeds dominated the contest from the off with Jack Harrison hitting the woodwork and playmaker Pablo Hernandez particularly influential in conjuring up consistent chances for the hosts. However, profligate finishing again frustrated home supporters with the Latics then taking a shock lead in bizarre circumstances from a deflected second-half corner.

Patrick Bamford, Helder Costa, Hernandez and Harrison all went close but Leeds have now failed to score in three defeats from their past four fixtures with Bielsa suggesting the Wigan match was "impossible to lose". He added, "The single question is why we lost a match which we had to win? We should have scored at least one of the 15 chances that we had."

New signings Jean-Kevin Augustinand Ian Poveda made their first appearances in a Whites' shirt on Monday, with the pair both featuring for the under-23s against Sheffield Wednesday. The duo will be considered for selection on Saturday, although Kalvin Phillips sits out his third and final match through suspension.

Underdogs Forest underrated?

Nottingham Forest have enjoyed the majority of their recent match-ups with Leeds over the past decade with the Tricky Trees boasting a W6-D6-L2 head-to-head supremacy, as well as a W4-D2-L1 return at the City Ground of late. The Reds have also avoided defeat in all three meetings with a Marcelo Bielsa-led Leeds outfit (W1-D2-L0), winning 4-2 here last term.

Since Sabri Lamouchi's arrival, Nottingham Forest 3.8014/5 have suffered only seven league defeats (W14-D9-L7), collected the second-most clean sheets (10), leaked the third-fewest goals (28) and fired only four blanks in 30 league outings. The Reds have also suffered a solitary loss in 11 when taking on top-10 rivals (W5-D5-L1) this term.

Leeds 2.1411/10 have registered just two Championship triumphs since mid-December (W2-D3-L4), a run of results that began with a nightmare 3-3 draw with Cardiff at Elland Road. The Whites have continued to create countless chances in the final-third but a failure to shutout opposition outfits in any of those nine outings has hampered any potential progress.

Leaky Leeds can be opposed

All three meetings between Nottingham Forest and Leeds in the Marcelo Bielsa era have seen both sides score and the same selection has proven profitable in six of the Whites' last nine league encounters, as well as all five trips to top-10 rivals. BTTS has also banked in seven of Forest's 10 tussles with the top-10 this term suggesting there's value in the 1.80.

However, I'm happier taking the 2.01 available via Betfair Sportsbook's Same Game Multi on Nottingham Forest in the Double Chance market alongside Nottingham Forest to score Over 0.5 Goals. It's landed in all bar eight of the Reds' 30 fixtures this term, plus seven of Leeds' nine matches during their recent lean spell.