Saturday Championship 3pm Kick-Offs: Highflying Robins to win again

Mike Norman
27 October 2017

Lee Johnson's Bristol City are playing magnificently this season

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Our resident Championship tipster Mike Norman is surprised that Sunderland are favourites to win at the Stadium of Light against Bristol City and feels they have to be opposed, while two more away teams make plenty of appeal on Saturday...

"Sunderland are yet to win a single game at the Stadium of Light in 2017 - that's a run of 17 games in all competitions - and they're currently languishing in 23rd place in the Championship table following just one victory from their opening 13 games."

Back Bristol City to Win @ 2.8415/8 v Sunderland

Norwcih 2.186/5 v Derby 3.8514/5; The Draw 3.55/2

This promises to be a very exciting encounter between two clubs in very good form of late, both with aspirations of reaching the play-offs at least, if not gaining automatic promotion.

It's also a game that is pretty difficult to call, and one that you really wouldn't be surprised with whatever the outcome turns out to be. So for that precise reason I have to back Derby to take all three points.

There is method in my madness of course, because when I find it difficult to separate two sides I expect to see them trading at around the same price in the Match Odds market. But Norwich are trading at just 2.186/5 to win this game, while the Rams are available to back at 3.8514/5, so at those prices I have to take a chance on the away team.

Gary Rowett's men are unbeaten in five games now, winning their last two against Nottm Forest and Sheff Wed without conceding, making it three clean sheets on the spin. Rowett isn't overly excited by the way his team are performing this season, but admitted that being disappointed with that is a nice disappointment to have given that his team are, "starting to build quite nicely".

A victory at Carrow Road on Saturday will see Derby leapfrog sixth-placed Norwich and possibly into the play-offs depending on other results, so they won't lack for incentive.

Of course, the Canaries won't be an easy nut to crack given Daniel Farke's men are on an excellent run of form themselves, going eight games unbeaten in the Championship and only losing in the EFL Cup to Arsenal in midweek in extra-time.

But if I was to be ultra critical of Norwich then it would be to suggest that they don't exactly score loads of goals. In that eight-game unbeaten league run Farke's men managed to find the back of the net just seven times, and at Carrow Road they haven't won for three games, drawing 0-0 with both Burton and Bristol City in that time and needing a 90th minute equaliser to scrape a 1-1 draw with Hull.

So while Norwich have to be respected in their current form they certainly don't look unbeatable on home soil, and in game that can quite easily go either way it makes complete sense to back the team trading at the much bigger price.

Recommended Bet
Back Derby to Win @ 3.8514/5

Preston 2.47/5 v Brentford 3.185/40; The Draw 3.7511/4

Brentford were trading at 3.55 when I first looked at this week's fixtures but those nice prices have all disappeared and the Bees are now solid at around the 3.185/40 mark. And I can see why.

After a difficult start to the season Dean Smith's men are starting to find some form and travel to Preston on the back of a five-game unbeaten run. They won just two of those games but they had some difficult fixtures, and avoiding defeat against the likes of Derby and Middlesbrough - they should have won the latter game comfortably - will have certainly boosted morale.

Smith was furious with the individual errors that gifted Sunderland three goals at Griffin Park last Saturday, but was delighted to see his team bounce back to draw 3-3, admitting that earlier in the season that was a game that his side would probably have lost.

Losing Jota in the transfer window was a big blow but Brentford appear to have found another excellent prospect in Ollie Watkins, who netted in three consecutive games to coincide with the Bees' recent improvement. Smith's men look like a team to keep on the right side of in the coming months.

Preston currently sit seventh in the table thanks largely to a bright start to the season, but their form in recent weeks hasn't been so good, winning just one of their last five matches. They've also won just one of their last four at Deepdale, failing to beat the likes of lowly Barnsley, Millwall, and Sunderland in that time.

Alex Neil is convinced his side's recent form is just a blip and that Preston are more than capable of reaching the play-offs this season, but I'm happy to oppose them this weekend, especially given that North End have a poor record against Brentford, losing six of their last seven meetings.

Recommended Bet
Back Brentford to Win @ 3.185/40

Sunderland 2.6613/8 v Bristol City 2.8415/8; The Draw 3.55

Sunderland are yet to win a single game at the Stadium of Light in 2017 - that's a run of 17 games in all competitions - and they're currently languishing in 23rd place in the Championship table following just one victory from their opening 13 games.

Yet incredibly the Black Cats are favourites to beat a Bristol City side that is currently seventh in the table, are unbeaten in six league and cup games on their travels, and have just thrashed Premier League outfit Crystal Palace in the EFL Cup.

If anyone can explain how you can have just an ounce of confidence in backing Sunderland to win at this price then I'm all ears!

True, it was 'only' bottom-of-the-table Palace that the Robins defeated in the EFL Cup in midweek, but prior to that Lee Johnson's men dumped two more Premier League clubs out of the competition; winning 3-2 at Watford in round two before beating Stoke 2-0 at Ashton Gate in the following round.

Johnson's men are a joy to watch; free-flowing, attack-minded, and very entertaining. Already this term they've put five past Plymouth, scored four against Derby and Palace, and three against the likes of Wolves, Watford, Ipswich, and Barnsley. I just can't see them not scoring at the Stadium of Light on Saturday.

Simon Grayson's men are low on confidence, and in front of their own fans they appear to be over-burdened by the pressure to break this winless run. It can't be easy when sections of the crowd vent their fury before leaving the stadium early if their team are losing. Going 10 games without a win isn't going to help morale either.

On current form Bristol City simply have to be the selection, not least because they should be the strong favourites to win this match, not trading at just shy of 2/1.

Recommended Bet
Back Bristol City to Win @ 2.8415/8 (best bet)

***

*You can follow me on Twitter - @MikkyMo73

Championship 2017/18 Season P/L

Staked: 44 pts
Returned: 31.23 pts
P/L: -12.77 pts

*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet

- 2016/17 P/L = +7.56 pts from 163 pts stakes
- 2015/16 P/L = -3.46 pts from 156 pts staked
- 2014/15 P/L = +21.78 pts from 164 pts staked

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