Newcastle 1.292/7 v Rotherham 13.012/1; The Draw 6.411/2
When top meets bottom in the Championship the alarm bells really should start ringing, especially when the home side is priced at just 1.292/7 to win.
But while I'd never take a price that short about any Championship side I do feel on this occasion that Rafa Benitez's men will win, and win very comfortably.
The key to Newcastle's victories on home soil this season is generally an early goal - score one and the Magpies relax in front of their own fans and usually go on to win with room to spare. Five of their last six wins at St James' Park have ben courtesy of 3-1 (x2), 3-0, 4-0, and 6-0 scorelines. The significant factor being Benitez's men scored within 20 minutes in all five of those victories.
But take a look at Newcastle's home defeats; 0-1 v Sheff Wed, 0-1 v Blackburn, 0-2 v Wolves, 1-2 v Huddersfield. Not an early goal in sight, which results in growing frustration, on and off the pitch.
I'm sure Rotherham boss Paul Warne knows this, and will therefore set up his side to frustrate the home team. So the question we have to ask ourselves is are the Millers good enough to prevent Newcastle from scoring a first half goal? On their day then probably yes, but on all known form then I'd have to say no.
Rotherham have been absolutely dreadful on the road this season, taking just a single point out of a possible 39 (W0, D1, L12). They've conceded an alarming total of 17 first half goals in those 13 away games, so now faced with their toughest task to date I'm confident their defence will be breached at least once during the first period.
Not that it has to of course, if it's 0-0 at half time then the recommended wager still has a chance. But as I've already pointed out, if Newcastle get their noses in front early then it generally results in a very comfortable win.
Back Newcastle -2 to Win @ 3.02/1 (best bet)
Cardiff 1.9210/11 v Burton 4.77/2; The Draw 3.65
He saved Rotherham from almost certain relegation last season, and now Neil Warnock is at it again with Cardiff.
The veteran manager took over at the Bluebirds in early October - much earlier than he stepped in to save the Millers last season admittedly - with the club languishing in the relegation zone.
Warnock turned results around immediately, guiding Cardiff to seven points from a possible nine in his first three games in charge. The club are now up to 18th in the table, six points above the drop zone, thanks to a run of form that has seen them lose just one of their last seven league outings.
Games against Brighton, Ipswich, Wolves, Brentford, and Villa are included in that spell so it's fair to say that Cardiff under Warnock have definitely turned the corner and it's onwards and upwards from here.
The same can't be said for Burton. The Brewers did extremely well in the first three months of the season but it was their home form that was keeping them comfortably above the drop zone.
But in recent weeks Nigel Clough has seen his team's form at the Pirelli Stadium dip massively, meaning they've now lost four on the spin in front of their own fans while away from home there has been no improvement.
Burton have lost seven of their last eight in all competitions, dropping to 21st in the table as well as being knocked out of the FA Cup. They are currently on a run of three straight defeats without scoring a single goal, so on current form a home win looks one of the weekend's bankers in the Championship.
Back Cardiff to Win @ 1.9210/11
Nottm Forest 2.77/4 v Bristol City 2.8415/8; The Draw 3.613/5
If I was in the position to go and see any Championship game this weekend then Forest v Bristol City would probably be top of my list.
It pits together two of the most out-of-form clubs in the division - in fact Forest have just sacked Philippe Montanier due the club's run of poor form - but it's also a meeting between two of the Championship's most entertaining sides.
The 26 league games involving Forest this season have witnessed 82 goals, that's the joint highest in the division and it's comfortably over the three goals per game average.
They go into this game with their backs firmly against the wall. They have no manager, they've taken just two points from the last 21 available, and on Friday they sold their captain, Henri Lansbury to Aston Villa. They are desperate for a result, and they just might go all guns blazing against a hapless Bristol City side.
The Robins are by some distance the worst team in the division on current form. Lee Johnson's men have slipped to 19th in the table - just three points above the drop zone - following a torrid run of 10 defeats in their last 11 games.
I earmarked Bristol City as a team to watch in terms of high-scoring games three months ago now because of their excellent counter attacking style. And by excellent I meant at the time they would often soak up pressure but hit teams on the break, and it often resulted in a lot of goals being scored.
It's not such an excellent system if you keep conceding goals, and that's what the Robins are doing. They have scored at least one, and conceded at least two, in all of their last five Championship games with the scorelines reading 3-2 (three times) and 2-1 (twice). That's an average of 4.2 goals witnessed per match.
Like Forest, Bristol City will be desperate to get a win that might just turn their season around, and you can be sure Johnson will be sending his men out to get at their manager-less opponents.
I'll be amazed if we don't see goals in this match, it could easily end 4-4 for me and I'll be having some small wagers on a very high-scoring game. But for the recommended bet I'll stick with wagering that we'll witness at least four goals at the City Ground.
Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.211/5
*You can follow me on Twitter - @MikkyMo73