MK Dons v Derby: Struggling Dons can upset the form book

Andy Tongue
24 September 2015

Karl Robinson feels a change of luck is just around the corner for the MK Dons

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Karl Robinson's newcomers haven't had the rub of the green lately but Andy Tongue is backing them to get at least a point from Saturday's televised Championship clash...

"Robinson is insistent that his men were robbed by poor refereeing decisions against Leeds, beaten by an opening Boro wonder-strike, and matched Burnley at Turf Moor"

Lay Derby at 2.111/10

MK Dons v Derby
Saturday, 12:30
Live on Sky Sports 5

MK Dons

Karl Robinson's men have found it tough going in the Championship with just two wins from their opening eight games leaving them in 20th place - two points above bottom-placed Rotherham. Those victories were both in the first three games (at Rotherham and then at home to 21st-placed Bolton) - since then they have gone five without a win including four consecutive defeats to Burnley, Leeds, Middlesbrough and Birmingham before Wednesday's thrashing at the hands of a very strong Southampton line-up in the Capital One Cup.

Robinson isn't happy his side have been picked for the early kick-off here after that game but I'm prepared to put a line through that result (even if it was 6-0!) as he was adamant even before the game that this fixture was his priority and the cup match was a slightly unfortunate distraction.

His line-up here will be much-changed from that team with the likes of Sam Gallagher and Dean Bowditch set to return while loan signings Nicky Maynard and Jake Forster-Caskey should get first starts.

Derby

The Rams are featured by Sky again just five days after a turgid goalless draw at home to Burnley which was probably the worst televised game across any league or competition so far this season - much to my disgust having confidently tipped up both teams to score, expecting a cracking game between two sides coming nicely into form - that's the Championship for you!

In fairness it was Paul Clement's side who made all the running but they lacked any real quality in the final third and that could be what prevents them justifying ante-post favouritism for promotion if they don't start scoring at the iPro Stadium.

They are unbeaten in four games on the road this season with narrows wins over 10-man Reading and Preston in their last two matches and Clement will hope to have Tom Ince available after he missed the Burnley game with a minor injury.

Match Odds

Last season Brentford and Wolves finished sixth and seventh respectively having won promotion just 12 months previously. This time round the promoted trio (Dons, Preston and Bristol City) have managed just four wins between them from their first 24 games and avoiding an immediate return to League One seems the most realistic target for each of them.

With the Dons' midweek cup hammering also having an effect on the market it's no surprise that the visitors have been backed into 2.111/10 here with 3.711/4 available about the home win and the draw priced at 3.711/4.

However, Robinson is insistent that his men were robbed by poor refereeing decisions against Leeds, beaten by an opening Boro wonder-strike, and matched Burnley at Turf Moor and there's no doubt they have had a tough run of fixtures. On that basis their luck is due to turn and it may be here is where it happens - especially if he is able to use Wednesday's heavy defeat to provoke an instant reaction from his side.

He's a bit of a marmite character but the opportunity to put on a good show in the Dons' first televised appearance of the season is one he'll be desperate his side take to justify the weakened team he put out in the week. Added to the fact that backing Derby has not been a productive past-time since about March, until they prove they can be ruthless in and around the opposition's penalty-box it's worth continuing to oppose the Rams.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

The market makes this a coin-flip with overs at 1.981/1 and unders 1.9720/21 to back. Considering the attacking talent at their disposal, it's surprising Derby have scored just seven goals in eight league games with six of those matches going under the 2.5 line.

The Dons have also struggled for goals with the exception of the four they put past Rotherham on the opening day and though Maynard will be a useful addition they are still unlikely to cause too many problems for the visitors' defence, where Richard Keogh and the returning Jason Shackell form a very solid unit at its heart.

Having effectively conceded Wednesday's game before kick-off, much to the annoyance of a section of their support, this is going to be like a cup-tie for the Dons and I suspect it will be a closely-fought affair with chances at a premium. That makes unders the call at nearly evens.

Recommended Bets
Lay Derby at 2.111/10
Back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.9720/21

You can read my previews of all the live Championship games here along with Mike Norman's Saturday 3pm tipsheets