Midweek Championship Tips: Lions could be overpriced at Elland Road

Jack Critchley
27 January 2020

Gary Rowett will be hoping that his side can extend their unbeaten run away from home

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Millwall side have lost just once since the beginning of November and Jack Critchley believes that they can leave West Yorkshire with a share of the spoils on Tuesday...

"Rowett also has a very good record against Leeds, winning three of his seven previous meetings with the Whites and has also managed to remain unbeaten in five of those contests"

Leeds' mid-season wobble to continue on Tuesday night

Leeds 1.511/2 v Millwall 8.88/1; The Draw 4.216/5

Gary Rowett has had a real impact on Millwall since arriving in Bermondsey in late October. The former Derby and Stoke boss has overseen eight victories so far, and seen his side conceded just 15 times in 16 outings. Saturday's FA Cup defeat to Premier League Sheffield United was just his fourth loss since succeeding Neil Harris although he did opt to make a number of changes for the visit of the in-form Blades.

He has generally flitted between a 3-4-3 and the more traditional 4-4-2 formation so far and has seemingly got the best out of previously inconsistent performers such as Jed Wallace and Connor Mahoney. The Lions have conceded just once in their last four Championship outings and only four of their opponents have found the net on more than one occasion since the beginning of November.

Away from home, they've proven particularly resolute with just three goals conceded in their last six games. That impressive sequence includes visits to Ashton Gate, Pride Park and the Liberty Stadium. Although they've suffered just four defeats on their travels so far this season, too many draws have prevented them from breaking into the top six.

Rowett also has a very good record against Leeds, winning three of his seven previous meetings with the Whites and has also managed to remain unbeaten in five of those contests. His sides have never drawn a blank against the West Yorkshire outfit and his current employers will be full of confidence coming into this tie.

Leeds remain second in the table, however, Marcelo Bielsa's side are currently enduring a poor run of form. They've picked up just a single victory since December 10th and that success came in the form of a topsy-turvy 5-4 victory at St.Andrews. Their water-tight defence has been struggling to keep clean sheets and it's now seven games since they kept the opposition off the scoresheet.

At the other end of the field, they continue to carve out chances, however Patrick Bamford's profligacy has undoubtedly held them back in recent weeks. Jean-Kevin Augustin is reportedly set to undergo a medical this week and the striker's proposed arrival is a significant coup for the club. However, a deal for the talented 22-year old may not be completed in time for him to feature on Tuesday night.

They've picked up just two points from a possible nine at home in recent weeks and it is far from the ideal time to be coming up against a stubborn opponent such as Millwall. The Londoners have beaten them in three of their last five meetings and are likely to cause them plenty of problems once again.

7/1 looks like tremendous value for a side who are incredibly tough to beat, although their tendency to draw is a slight concern. It's 13/8 on the Sportsbook for Millwall to Win or Draw (Double Chance) and that looks like the best way to approach this midweek meeting.

Marcelo Bielsa shout 1280.jpg

Cardiff and West Brom to share the points in South Wales

Cardiff 3.259/4 v West Brom 2.486/4; The Draw 3.412/5

Neil Harris made a fantastic start to life at Cardiff City and took ten points from his first four games in charge. However, the honeymoon period has unquestionably ceased and the former Millwall boss is struggling to lift his side out of mid-table obscurity. The Bluebirds remain incredibly tough to beat, losing just one of their last seven Championship outings, however, they've also picked up just a single victory since the beginning of December.

The South Walians have been the division's draw specialists in recent weeks and have struggled to finish sides off. At the weekend, they failed to beat Reading's second string side in the FA Cup with defender Sol Bamba skewing wide from just a couple of yards out.

Harris is likely to dip into the transfer market later this month and a striker is likely to be the priority. Robert Glatzel is still adapting to life in the second tier whilst neither Josh Murphy, Junior Hoilett nor Danny Ward are consistent enough to help fire them towards the play-offs. With just five goals in six games, they need to improve their productivity in the final third and they can't continue to solely rely upon the sporadic brilliance of Lee Tomlin.

West Brom also arrive here in a bit of a rut with Slaven Bilic's side having failed to win any of their last six league matches. They looked devoid of ideas against Stoke City eight days ago, although they did manage to bounce back at the weekend with an FA Cup success against West Ham at the London Stadium.

They've suffered just a single defeat on their travels so far this season, although three of their last four outings have ended all-square. They have the best away defence in the division although they haven't managed to keep a clean sheet away from the Hawthorns since December 2nd.

On current form, there is very little between these two sides and both will be desperate to get back to winning ways on Tuesday night. WBA look the side likeliest to end their drought here, however the men from the Black Country will be without Matheus Pereira once again and could struggle to create chances without the services of the Brazilian.

Two of the last four meetings between these sides have finished level and the pair look closely matched once again. The value lies with backing the draw, which is currently available at 3.412/5 on the Exchange. Their respective winless runs look set to continue as the pair look likely to cancel each other out in the Welsh capital.

Another lively affair expected at Kenilworth Road

Luton 3.211/5 v Derby 2.3611/8; The Draw 3.613/5

Having bowed out of the FA Cup in the third round, Luton have enjoyed a rare week off ahead of this fixture and Graeme Jones will have enjoyed some valuable time to work with his squad. The Hatters desperately need to stop the rot and find a way to keep the opposition off the scoresheet. The Buckinghamshire outfit have conceded the highest number of goals in the division with an average of 2.18 goals shipped per match.

They are slightly more efficient in front of their own fans, although they've failed to keep a clean sheet since mid-October and have conceded five times in their last two matches.

If they have any chance of preserving their Championship status, last season's League One champions would require at least 23 points from their remaining 18 fixtures and they will fancy their chances of getting something against a Derby side who have struggled on the road so far this year.

The Rams have slowly begun to turn things around and come into this fixture on a five match unbeaten run. They were unable to squeeze past lower league opposition on Friday night, and have also drawn each of their last two away games in the Championship. Phillip Cocu's side have scored just ten away goals this season, however a third of that total have arrived in their last couple of outings, and they shouldn't have too many problems finding the net here.

The likes of Chris Martin and Martyn Waghorn are clearly benefiting from playing alongside Wayne Rooney whilst the return of both Jack Marriott and Jayden Bogle is also a plus. At the other end of the field, the East Midlanders are yet to keep a clean sheet on their travels and will be hoping to end that barren spell on Tuesday night. However, the hosts have only failed to score once at home since mid-September and have notched eight times in their last five matches here.

Neither side are particularly convincing at the back and that should lead to a few goals in this encounter. Using the Sportsbooks' same game multi, we can get 10/11 for Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS and that would have landed in six of Luton's last seven matches at this stadium.

You can follow Jack Critchley on Twitter @jcritch7