Leeds v Nottingham Forest: Bielsa's boys backed to impress

Mark O'Haire
09 August 2019

Leeds were the most dominant team in the Championship last year

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Promotion favourites Leeds made an impressive start and will look to make it two wins from two when Forest arrive at Elland Road on Saturday, says Mark O'Haire.

"Marcelo Bielsa’s boys bagged 14 home wins from 21 (W14-D4-L3) when excluding the top-two last term, a sample that also includes nine shutouts."

Leeds v Nottingham Forest
Saturday August 10, 12:30
Live on Sky Sports

Leeds start in style

Promotion favourites Leeds began their Championship campaign in fine style last weekend, putting in arguably the division's most eye-catching performance in a convincing 3-1 win away at Bristol City. The mercurial Pablo Hernandez opened the scoring, Patrick Bamford doubled the advantage before Jack Harrison added a third goal on the counter-attack.

Marcelo Bielsa's men limited their hosts to few clear chances as the Whites' famed high-pressing, high-intensity style, which has become their trademark under the Argentine was clear to see from the off. Young centre-back Ben White made an accomplished debut at the back and another loan signing, Helder Costa, entered the fray from the bench.

Leeds lost last season's top goalscorer Kemar Roofe to Anderlecht in midweek but the club have secured the loan signing of highly-rated Arsenal forward Eddie Nketiah to fill that void. The Whites were also able to ward off attention for Kalvin Phillips, whilst defender Gaetano Berardi is available again after suspension. Luke Ayling is doubtful.

Forest flop on opening day

Nottingham Forest started the season with their first opening-day league defeat at the City Ground since 1983 as West Brom departed with a 2-1 triumph. New head coach Sabri Lamouchi says he saw enough from his players to convince him they can bounce back but conceded the Reds lost control of the game having taken an early lead through Matty Cash.

Mistakes from goalkeeper Arijanet Muric proved costly as the Baggies came from behind to pocket maximum points. Forest had started promisingly, deservedly going ahead after some fine link-up play between Albert Adomah and Cash. However, the hosts rarely threatened thereafter with Alfa Semedo lashing over and Michael Dawson's blocked effort the closest they came to an equaliser.

Lamouchi admitted post-match, "When you start in the right way, as we did with the goal, you cannot allow the opponent to come back into the game." The Frenchman featured four debutants in his starting XI against West Brom, although he's again likely to be without playmaker Joao Carvalho here. Carl Jenkinson and Brice Samba joined in midweek.

Match Odds

Leeds come into this contest having registered only two victories from their last 13 league fixtures with Nottingham Forest (W2-D5-L6). But entertainment has been in relatively short supply during the duos recent duels with just 10 goals plundered across their most recent seven showdowns at Elland Road since March 2012.

Leeds 1.511/2 were the most dominant team in the Championship last year, finishing top of the tree across all the major performance data metrics. Marcelo Bielsa's boys bagged 14 home wins from 21 (W14-D4-L3) when excluding the top-two, a sample that also includes nine shutouts. However, there's little value in the Whites at their current quotes.

Nottingham Forest 7.807/1 haven't lost their opening two league matches of a season since 1971 and the Tricky Trees will be determined to put in a better shift this weekend. The Reds suffered a solitary reverse in nine trips to the top-10 last term (W1-D7-L1), even if the club's performance data marked the guests out as a bottom-half side when playing away.

Goals

Over 2.5 Goals 1.855/6 and Both Teams To Score 2.001/1 both banked in Leeds' and Nottingham Forest's opening encounters. Despite the absence of Kemar Roofe, Leeds showed real intent and invention in the final-third last time out - largely due to the influence of Pablo Hernandez - as Marcelo Bielsa's troops fired in 18 attempts at goal.

With the Whites renowned for monopolising possession under their Argentine boss, opportunities are often limited for opposition outfits. There's enough evidence to overlook the BTTS market, whilst Over 2.5 Goals enjoyed less than a 50% win rate at Elland Road in Bielsa's first term and so I'm happy to look elsewhere for my favourite fancy.

Instead, I'll gladly take the 1.68 available on Leeds in the Double Chance market and Under 3.5 Goals via Betfair Sportsbook's Same Game Multi option. The selection paid out in 14/21 (67%) of the hosts' home outings when excluding the top two in 2018/19.