Leeds v Nottingham Forest: Lay both teams to score

Andy Tongue
19 April 2014

Keep 29-goal Ross McCormack quiet and Leeds struggle for goals

Join

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

Monday's live Championship game is set for goals according to the market but Andy Tongue is keen to take on the perceived wisdom...

"Laying both teams to score would have been a winner in each of Leeds' last five games."

Lay Both Teams to Score at 1.654/6

Leeds v Nottingham Forest
Easter Monday
17:15
Live on Sky Sports One

Leeds

At least things are a little clearer off the pitch at Elland Road, for now. Massimo Cellino was cleared by the Football League to take over the club and has confirmed that Brian McDermott will stay as manager until the end of the season.

And the 1-0 win at Barnsley on Saturday won't have done his prospects of staying on beyond that any harm. United were far more dominant than the scoreline suggests and should have won by a far wider margin than Ross McCormack's 29th goal of the season. Whether he will still be in a Leeds shirt next year is another question, though.

Prior to that morale-boosting result their form had been poor - just two wins in 12 and those came against hapless Blackpool and struggling Millwall. In fact they've not beaten a top-half side since Wigan on December 4, last year.

Nottingham Forest

Saturday's win at home to Birmingham was Forest's first for 13 games but remarkably it kept their slim play-off hopes alive and means they have plenty to play for here. They were good value for the three points and the performance continued the improvement shown in the defeat at QPR a week earlier, where the 5-2 scoreline was very harsh.

It was only the second clean sheet since the start of February but if Gary Brazil's men can keep things tight at the back they do have plenty of attacking threats. Matt Derbyshire's winner was his second in successive games, while Darius Henderson and Simon Cox - proven goalscorers at this level - are a great pair to have on the bench.

Going into this one they sit three points behind sixth-placed Brighton with Reading and Ipswich also above them. It's unlikely all three will slip up on their remaining games but Forest have plenty of incentive to win this one and see what happens elsewhere.

Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score has been priced up at 1.635/8 which looks too short to me. The logic is presumably that Forest have been weak at the back and have to go for the win here so an open game is in prospect. However, laying both teams to score would have been a winner in each of Leeds' last five games. And if you can keep McCormack quiet then they don't have too many other threats going forward.

A second game in three days for both sides could mean some tired legs by the second half and with the match odds market looking very trappy, and one I'm keen to avoid as my recommended bet, this could be the best path to profit.

Cash Out Opportunity

Having said the match odds market is one to swerve, it could provide the chance to cash out for a guaranteed profit. I make these two sides fairly evenly matched at Elland Road and think there's unlikely to be more than a goal in the outcome so backing the draw at 3.45 would provide that cash out opportunity if things are level going into the last half-an-hour.

Recommended Bet
Lay Both Teams to Score at 1.654/6

Cash Out Tip
Back the draw at 3.45