Fulham v QPR: Backing West London derby stalemate the logical pick

Andy Tongue
24 September 2015

Kit Symons will have his side fired up for the West London derby with QPR

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An appetising clash is in store under the Friday night lights at Craven Cottage and our man thinks that the tried and trusted 'Derby draw' is the best value bet...

"Given that the visitors probably have the edge in quality to counter-balance home advantage then I think all the elements are in place for a televised 'derby draw'"

Back the draw at 3.55/2

Fulham v QPR
Friday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 5

Fulham

Kit Symons' side had started to put together a useful-looking run (four games unbeaten in all competitions) before they slipped to a 3-2 defeat at Sheffield Wednesday last Saturday then lost 1-0 at home to Stoke in the Capital One Cup on Tuesday night. The Cottagers have found their form in front of goal in the league, netting seven times in the last three games with star striker Ross McCormack among the scorers.

They have struggled at the other end though and not managed a clean sheet yet in any of their eight league games. Three home league games this season have produced a defeat to leaders Brighton then a draw with Huddersfield before victory over Blackburn. Defender James Husband should return after being cup-tied for the Stoke defeat.

QPR

We saw Chris Ramsey's side lose 2-1 at home to Forest in front of the cameras a couple of weeks ago to end a run of three wins on the spin. Since then a patchy 2-2 draw at home to Blackburn was followed by a better performance at Hull where they deserved their point - Championship top scorer Charlie Austin once again the man on the scoresheet for the Hoops.

Currently in ninth place but level on points with the team in sixth spot, Rangers are very much in with a chance of putting some pressure on the leaders if they can find some consistency. They also have the Premier League experience and quality of midfield duo Leroy Fer and Sandro to welcome back - possibly here if they pass fitness tests this week.

Match Odds

This looks like a very evenly-matched West London derby and the exchange prices back that up. The home side are 2.747/4 with QPR only a marginally bigger price at 2.789/5; draw can be backed at 3.55/2. It should be a lively game under the lights at the Cottage and as ever in a fixture like this the stalemate has to be a major consideration from a punting point of view.

The home side do have the upper-hand in recent meetings between the pair, winning three of the last four clashes but I don't put much weight on stats like that - my thinking is that the visitors have the edge in quality to counter Fulham's home advantage. Having played just 72 hours previously would normally count against Symons' men but the adrenalin will be pumping in front of a big crowd and I think all the elements are in place for a televised 'derby draw'.

To Score

Put simply, Austin is a Premier League striker playing in the Championship and you have to fancy him to get his name on the scoresheet each time he pulls on the Hoops shirt this season. He has scored in five of their eight league games this season and that makes the 2.77/4 with the Sportsbook for him to find the net here very generous in my opinion.

This bet landed for us at 2.47/5 against Forest so I'm slightly surprised to see him at this price, particularly given the fact Fulham haven't kept a clean sheet this season. Rangers' regular spot-kick taker, he's also scored in both their televised games to remind any watching Premier League scouts of his ability and I'm very sweet on backing him to make it the hat-trick here!

Recommended Bets

Back the draw at 3.55/2
Back Charlie Austin to score anytime with the Sportsbook at 2.77/4

You can read my previews of all the live Championship games here along with Mike Norman's Saturday 3pm tipsheets