Championship Midweek Tipsheet: Back Boro to land early season blow

Mike Norman
17 August 2015

Boro boss Aitor Karanka is aiming to score an early victory over promotion rivals Derby

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The two title favourites go head-to-head in the Championship on Tuesday night and Mike Norman believes that while Derby are sure to improve it's Middlesbrough who are the better and more confident side right now and should be backed...

"Six goals in two games since with Saturday's first half performance against Bolton being the best football Boro have played under their current manager."

Back Middlesbrough @ 3.185/40 to beat Derby

Derby 2.68/5 v Middlesbrough 3.185/40; The Draw 3.45 (Tuesday)

The second favourites for the title at home to the favourites, a battle between the losing play-off finalists from the last two seasons. It's a huge early season clash and it would be remiss of me not to briefly preview it even I didn't fancy anything strongly.

As it happens I do fancy something strongly, and it's the away win.

Most of you will know that I'm a Boro fan, but there's absolutely nothing sentimental about this wager at all. Put simply, I think Middlesbrough are the better side right now and deserve to be favourites to win the game.

The Rams have started the season slowly, losing to League Two outfit Portsmouth in the Capital One Cup while they've also failed to beat both Bolton and Charlton in the Championship, scoring just one goal in those two outings. The loss of midfielder Will Hughes to injury is a major blow for Paul Clement, and the Derby boss is struggling to settle on a team and formation without him.

Middlesbrough have to take advantage on Tuesday night because one thing is for certain, Derby will get better as the season progresses.

Aitor Karanka's men were below par themselves in an opening day goalless draw at Preston, but the boss read the riot act after that performance and he's had the perfect response. Six goals in two games since with Saturday's first half performance against Bolton being the best football Boro have played under their current manager.

Diego Fabbrini was unplayable, Stewart Downing never misplaced a pass, and Kike took his chances, while the likes of Adam Forshaw, Uruguay international Christian Stuani - who had scored a brace himself in midweek - and new £4m signing David Nugent could only settle for a place on the bench.

It's one thing having the best squad in the division but it's another to live up to your 'title favourites' tag and deliver on the pitch. So far the signs are good for Karanka. His side have hit the ground running much faster than Derby it seems and I'm backing them to repeat the victory they secured at the iPro Stadium towards the end of last season.

Recommended Bet
Back Middlesbrough to Win @ 3.185/40 (best bet)

Nottm Forest 2.111/10 v Charlton 4.03/1; The Draw 3.613/5 (Tuesday)

There's a bit of a theme to my first midweek tipsheet of the season, and it's to take on what I perceive to be teams that have struggled in their first three games of the new campaign.

Forest didn't show much in their opening game defeat at Brighton, and they followed that performance with a very disappointing home loss to League One side Walsall in the Capital One Cup, conceding an alarming four goals in the process.

The remarkable thing about that defeat was the outburst by Dougie Freedman after the match who declared, "I've finally reached the end of my tether. I am bitterly disappointed", before concluding, "There has got to be changes in personnel, simple as that."

Freedman got a reaction to some extent on Saturday, but a 2-1 home victory over relegation favourites Rotherham was hardly eyecatching and now they face one of the division's early season form sides.

Guy Luzon's Charlton beat QPR on the first day of the season before putting four past Dagenham & Redbridge in the cup. I tipped them up at 6.411/2 to beat Derby at the weekend and they actually traded at odds-on when leading in the second half, but were eventually pegged back and had to settle for a 1-1 draw. Still, a more than satisfactory result.

In stark contrast to Freedman, Luzon praised his team after that game stating that his side have big hearts. While that doesn't always win you football games it seems the Addicks camp is far happier than the Forest one. They're a better side right now too and I'm backing them to confirm that belief on Tuesday night.

Recommended Bet
Back Charlton to Win @ 4.03/1

Bristol City 2.1411/10 v Leeds 3.9; The Draw 3.55/2 (Wednesday)

Another side seemingly out of form is Bristol City, yet they are very strong favourites to beat a Leeds sides who have so far failed to taste defeat (in 90 minutes) this term. I don't get that at all.

I actually think The Robins will do well this season, they have too many goals in them to struggle badly, but as manager Steve Cotterill admitted last week they seem to be suffering a hangover from their impressive promotion from League One last term.

Cotterill's men have lost three straight games, and have conceded nine goals in the process including four at Ashton Gate on Saturday. They may well win this game, but anyone who thinks that a price just a tad better than evens is good value based on results so far is a much better judge that me.

And in a football match, when you have one team that you believe to be under-priced it always means that the other team is over-priced.

True, Leeds haven't exactly set the world alight yet, but they're still unbeaten in the league and have conceded just a single goal. They look a well organised unit under Uwe Rosler and I fancy striker Chris Wood will get plenty of goals at this level. He's sure to have a few chances at Ashton Gate on Wednesday night and I'm taking his side to prevail at generous odds.

Recommended Bet
Back Leeds to Win @ 3.9

*You can follow me on Twitter - @MikkyMo73

**For a preview of every single live game in England's second tier, provided by Andy Tongue, simply visit our dedicated Championship section here on Betting.Betfair.

Championship 2015/16 Season P/L

Staked: 8 pts
Returned: 7.52 pts
P/L: -0.48 pts

*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet

**2014/15 P/L = +21.78 pts from 164 staked (ROI = 13.28%)

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