Derby v Leeds: Expect slow start in early kick-off

Andy Tongue
25 August 2015

Derby hitman Chris Martin has looked something like his best in the last two games

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We get another chance to see this Championship pair live in Saturday's lunchtime game and Andy Tongue thinks the early kickoff could take a while to come to the boil at the iPro Stadium

"I expect Derby to dominate possession again here but they may have to be patient and bide their time for opportunities in front of goal."

Back 0-0 in the half time score market at 2.962/1

Derby v Leeds
Saturday 29 August, 12:05
Live on Sky Sports 1

Derby

Last Friday's entertaining 1-1 draw in front of the cameras against a decent Birmingham side would have been frustrating for Paul Clement as his men dominated the second-half after falling behind to another deflected shot and were unlucky not to complete the comeback by earning all three points. Instead, they had to settle for a fourth successive stalemate but the signs were a lot more promising than in the previous three where they had looked like a side struggling to find any fluidity going forwards.

At home to both Charlton and Middlesbrough they enjoyed the lion's share of possession but were unable to create many clear-cut chances for their big-name strike trio of Chris Martin, Darren Bent and Andreas Weimann. Clement will have to decide which of the latter pair starts alongside last season's top-scorer here.

Leeds

Uwe Rosler was happy enough with the point from his side's own fourth consecutive league draw at home to Sheffield Wednesday last week pointing out that it was their fourth game in nine days and there were some tired legs in the second-half, as I had suggested would be the case in my preview of that one.

The Sky cameras have decided that United are worthy of their attention for the fourth time already this season so there's no excuse for us not to know what Rosler's side are about - hard-working and pretty solid at the back with Chris Wood now looking a threat up front following the equaliser against Wednesday - his second strike in consecutive games. Lewis Cook is in contention for a starting spot after serving a three-match suspension.

Match Odds

All eight league games involving these sides have ended in draws this season, five of them 1-1 so that should make this preview pretty short and sweet! However, I'm not sure the editors will be happy with a simple 'back the draw and back 1-1 correct score' so we'd better look beyond the results and analyse the two sides' performances in those games.

In fact, Derby were pretty impressive at St Andrew's on Friday night and pushed hard for the win, but the 1.684/6 about the home win is not for me - they still haven't won a game since the end of last season and since February the only teams they have beaten in competitive football are Blackpool and Wigan, who were the bottom two in the Championship last year. Rosler's men can be backed at a juicy 6.25/1, while it's 3.953/1 about a fifth consecutive draw for the pair.

This has been a bit of a grudge match since the days of Brian Clough and it's the Rams who have held the upper hand in recent times, winning their last six clashes at the iPro Stadium, but I'm going to leave this market alone for the reasons highlighted above.

Half Time Score

Although it's been a frustrating beginning to the campaign for Rams' fans, the Championship really is a gruelling 46-game season and there's an awful long way to go. What has pleased Clement has been his side's solidity at the back with just three goals conceded in four games and two of those coming from wicked deflections from long-ranges strikes.

The visitors are building their foundations from a strong defensive base too - apart from that crazy eight minutes at the end of their trip to Bristol City 10 days ago they too have been very good at the back. With both sides having enjoyed the full week to rest and prepare for this game I think we'll see a pretty tight opening half and backing 0-0 in the half time score market at 2.962/1 looks good value. I expect Derby to dominate possession again here but they may have to be patient and bide their time for opportunities in front of goal.

First Goalscorer

Each side has a go-to man up front in Martin and Wood respectively and if the deadlock is broken then they are the pair most likely to do so, which is why I'm going to split my second bet between them in the first goalscorer market. Martin equalised against Charlton in clinical fashion and should have had a penalty at Birmingham when he was clipped in the area, while he also looked dangerous as the Rams surged forwards in the last 15 minutes at St Andrew's.

I recommended an each-way bet at 34.033/1 on Wood in the top scorer market with the Sportsbook prior to the first weekend of the season and he's now into 17.016/1 after finding his stride and netting in each of United's last two games so both will be full of confidence. Martin is 4.57/2 and Wood 9.517/2 with the Sportsbook to open the scoring here and I'm going to back the pair to half-stakes.

Recommended Bets
Back 0-0 in the half time score market at 2.962/1
Back Chris Martin and Chris Wood as first goalscorer at 4.57/2 and 9.517/2 to half-stakes at Betfair Sportsbook

You can read my previews of all the live Championship games here along with Mike Norman's Saturday 3pm tipsheets