Championship Betting: What goes down will come back up

Championship / Frank Gregan / 09 September 2009 /

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"There's something not quite right about winning matches at Championship level if you are a Geordie. It's a bit like beating your six-year-old lad at pool during the summer holidays or getting more questions right on 'who wants to be a millionaire' than your Granny! "

Does Newcastle's impressive start underline the disparity between Championship and Premier League? Frank Gregan thinks so.

It is of course very early days but the evidence is there for all to see, the gulf between the Premier League and the Championship is growing every year. Sitting proudly at the top of the table after five games are Newcastle United. The same club that couldn't win a throw in in the opponent's defensive third - let alone a football match - in the Premier League last season.

Newcastle's problems are well documented. Managerless and with a want-away owner who is using the interim period before the sale to asset strip; they are fielding players in their starting 11 who wouldn't have made the travelling party last year. Such is the calibre of the opposition, however, they have won four and drawn one of their five league games and are out in front with 13 points from 15. The only side to take a point off them thus far are West Brom who finished last season below the Geordies in the Premier League. That result was gained on the Baggies home soil and was considered a point gained by the black and white travelling hordes.

Newcastle fans are buzzing like a bee with laryngitis (or a broken wing if one wishes to be pedantic!). There's something not quite right about winning matches at Championship level if you are a Geordie. It's a bit like beating your six-year-old lad at pool during the summer holidays or getting more questions right on 'who wants to be a millionaire' than your Granny! It's not the real McCoy but they've got to be won in order to get back to the land of milk and honey.

West Brom have also started well and occupy second spot. They remain undefeated but as well as the draw against Newcastle they were also held by Sheffield United at Bramall Lane. The Blades were 90 minutes away from returning to the Premier League in May before losing out to Burnley in the play off final and have aspirations of automatic promotion this time around. Robert Di Mateo's men were probably not disappointed with a point from the fixture but the way the game panned out will hurt. The Baggies led twice and waved goodbye to two points when United scored from the penalty spot with two minutes remaining.

The other relegated side, Middlesbrough, have also made a bright start but haven't quite completed the trifecta. They lie fourth in the table courtesy of having conceded a last minute goal at Ashton Gate which consigned them to defeat against Bristol City. Significantly, Sheffield United pop into the equation again, they took a point on the opening day of the season off the 'Boro at the Riverside.

The three relegated clubs look sure to play a big part in the promotion race this season. When you consider that they were all abysmal last year and all three clubs, Newcastle in particular, have lost key players since their relegation, it is evident that the gulf in class between the Premier League and the Championship is getting wider.

Around about this time last year I recommended backing Newcastle, Middlesbrough and Sunderland to be relegated. The logic behind that type of bet is, get one right and the stake is returned with a wee profit, get two right and a handsome profit is made and if all three come to fruition - Happy Days! This time around it's time to apply that logic to a promotion bet and even though the odds are skinnier, one right just about recoups the stake and two out of three still provides a decent return. The recommendation is Newcastle at [2.62], West Brom at [2.58] and Middlesbrough at [3.3] to be promoted.

The market that really highlights the gulf in class between the two divisions is the Championship's top goalscorer market. Shola Ameobi is the second favourite, available to back at [7.0] despite rumours that equipment used during shooting practice at Newcastle's training ground includes a model of a grazing cow and a banjo! The market leader at [4.1] is a former team-mate of Ameobi, Cardiff's Michael Chopra who is also a product of the Newcastle academy. The two teams meet on Sunday and if you fancy that Cardiff could inflict Newcastle's first defeat of the season there is [2.54] available in the match odds market.

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