Cardiff v Swansea: Tight South Wales derby anticipated

Mark O'Haire
11 January 2020

Cardiff boss Neil Harris has questioned his team’s attitude and ability

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The South Wales derby takes centre-stage on Sunday and Mark O'Haire expects the latest chapter between Cardiff and Swansea to be a tightly-contested battle in the capital...

"Four of the most recent five contests between Cardiff and Swansea have produced no more than a sole goal"

Cardiff v Swansea
Sunday January 12, 12:00
Sky Sports

Harris angered by recent Cardiff contests

Cardiff boss Neil Harris questioned his team's attitude and ability after seeing the Bluebirds eviscerated 6-1 at QPR on New Year's Day, calling the performance "unacceptable" before apologising to supporters post-match. The 42-year-old, who succeeded Neil Warnock in November, made it clear that major changes will be made around the club in January.

The former Millwall manager has made no secret of the fact that he would like to reshape his squad and said the poor display in West London had confirmed that. Harris has W4-D5-L2 of his 11 games in charge of the capital club, seeing his side fightback from two goals down to avoid an embarrassing exit to League Two outfit Carlisle in the FA Cup last time out.

Cardiff - who made eight changes - were level 10 minutes into the second half thanks to goals from Callum Paterson and Gavin Whyte and spent the final half an hour in pursuit of a winner, only to be thwarted by Carlisle goalkeeper Adam Collin. A response will be expected on Sunday, although Nathaniel Mendez-Laing is unavailable with a serious hamstring injury.

Much-changed Swansea thrashed in FA Cup

Swansea head coach Steve Cooper has made no secret of the club's desire for a promotion push this season despite their inconsistent form. The former England youth boss declared after taking over last summer that the Swans could compete for a return to the top-flight and his side sit pretty in sixth following a rare home win against Charlton 10 days ago.

Cooper then opted to rest and rotate his squad for the team's FA Cup outing at QPR last weekend, making 10 changes to his starting XI. Conor Roberts was the only player to be retained, whilst Brandon Cooper made only his second senior appearance at centre-half alongside Jake Bidwell with Mike van der Hoorn and Ben Wilmot unavailable.

A woeful first-half display at Loftus Road proved costly as Swansea trailed 3-0 at the break, eventually going down 5-1 with Cooper not mincing his words post-match. The Swansea boss admitted he was "fuming" and said, "I can accept getting beat, but I can't accept not trying and not giving your all." Expect another 10 changes to the Swans team on Sunday.

Inconsistent pair make little derby appeal

Cardiff and Swansea crossed swords for the first time since their Premier League days in 2013/14 when locking horns in November. The Swans earned a 1-0 triumph at the Liberty Stadium on that occasion thanks to Ben Wilmot's first-half goal and the visitors won't fear a trip to the capital either, having returned W3-D3-L2 on their last eight trips to Cardiff.

After a promising opening under Neil Harris' leadership, Cardiff 2.447/5 have dropped back into mid-table mediocrity with a solitary success in six (W1-D3-L2). The Bluebirds do boast a W7-D4-L1 record at the Cardiff City Stadium, however, the hosts have concerningly managed only W2-D8-L5 overall when taking on teams in 14th and above this term.

Swansea 3.002/1 made a blistering start under Steve Cooper, banking 16 points from their first six Championship games. But the Swans have earned just six triumphs from their following 20 outings as their position in the play-off places comes under threat. Even so, Swansea have W5-D5-L2 on their travels and W10-D8-L1 against sides in eighth and below.

Oppose goals

Four of the most recent five contests between Cardiff and Swansea have produced no more than a sole goal, although further back this fixture has featured Over 2.5 Goals in six of nine league encounters since November 2008. Considering the high stakes of a South Wales derby, opposing goals appears the most obvious angle of attack at 1.85.

Only five of Cardiff's 12 season-long showdowns in front of their home supporters have crossed the Over 2.5 Goals barrier, whilst only half of Swansea's road trips have produced at least three goals. Expected Goals (xG) figures also point to a below average output, even more so when considering the magnitude of the match in the Welsh capital.