Bristol City v Norwich: Underrated Robins can stall Canaries

Mark O'Haire
14 December 2018

Bristol City ended Birmingham's unbeaten home record last week

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Norwich travel to Bristol City for an appetising Saturday evening Championship showdown and Mark O'Haire expects the hosts to make it tough for the table topping Canaries...

"Johnson’s men are posting a 61% Expected Goals ratio at Ashton Gate this term and therefore appear underrated in the pre-match markets this weekend."

Bristol City v Norwich
Saturday December 15, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports

Bristol City impress at Birmingham

Bristol City became the first side to win a league game at Birmingham since March when beating the Blues 1-0 last weekend. Famara Diedhiou scored the only goal of the game when heading home a second-half corner to break the deadlock at St Andrew's and give the Robins a second success in three.

Centre-back Tomas Kalas had earlier seen a shot blocked on the line as City pressed for the opener in a performance that boss Lee Johnson described as "dogged, very hard fought but deserved". Robins keeper Niki Maenpaa made two smart saves, although for the most part the visitors were untroubled.

Goalkeeper Frank Fielding is back in full training after recovering from illness, and Bailey Wright is back in contention. However, Korey Smith, Matty Taylor and Liam Walsh are closing in on first-team returns but remain sidelined for Saturday.

Norwich hold onto top spot

Teemu Pukki struck in the third minute of stoppage-time to secure Championship league leaders Norwich victory in a five-goal thriller against basement battlers Bolton last weekend. The Canaries had surrendered a two-goal lead but fought back to pick up their 12th win in 15 fixtures.

Mario Vrancic opened the scoring before half-time before turning provider for Marco Stiepermann to double the lead after the interval. The Norfolk outfit saw their advantage cancelled out two minutes from time, although Pukki was on-hand to deliver Daniel Farke's charges a hard-earned three points.

Centre-half Timm Klose pulled out of the Bolton contest shortly before kick-off with a knee problem and remains a doubt here; Ben Godfrey was pressed into emergency action against the Trotters and may be called upon again. Elsewhere, Moritz Leitner is also doubtful but Onel Hernandez is fit enough to feature.

Robins underrated on home soil

Norwich 2.568/5 have departed Ashton Gate with maximum points in two of their past three visits (W2-D1-L0) since 2008 and head west unbeaten in each of their past six meetings with Bristol City (W4-D2-L0). The Championship pace-setters arrive having picked up 39 points from their past 48 available.

The Canaries have claimed W8-D1-L0 since October's international break, whilst three of the visitors' four defeats have come against teams occupying top-six positions. Daniel Farke's charges boast the division's best road record (W5-D4-L1) this term and have returned W11-D7-L8 when travelling to non-top-six teams.

Bristol City 2.9215/8 have bagged W6-D5-L6 when welcoming top-half teams since the beginning of 2017/18. The Robins are undergoing an inconsistent campaign, although their underlying performance data suggests they should be much closer to the play-off positions as City sit inside the top-eight for all major metrics.

Johnson's men are posting a 61% Expected Goals ratio at Ashton Gate this term and therefore appear underrated in the pre-match markets this weekend.

Tight tussle on the cards

Collectively, Bristol City and Norwich have combined to keep 14/42 (33%) clean sheets this season, each recording seven shutouts. The pair are positioned inside the top four in terms of their limiting opponents' Expected Goals from open play, as well as the concession of shots from inside the penalty area.

The two teams clearly offer plenty of offensive threat in the final-third, although the home side have returned just two Over 2.5 Goals 1.9110/11 winners in their 10 Ashton Gate outings, as matches have averaged only 2.00 goals per-game, suggesting a tight tussle could be in store on Saturday evening.

Same Game Multi

With a close encounter forecast, and Bristol City looking a little large in the Match Odds, punters are advised to head to Betfair Sportsbook's Same Game Multi market to squeeze out a little extra value from the contest.

By backing Bristol City not to lose in the Double Chance market, plus Under 3.5 Goals, we can grab an attractive 2.01. We'll then be paid out should the match end 0-0, 1-1 or if the hosts win by 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 correct scores.