Aston Villa v Leeds: Goals forecast for Sunday showdown

Mark O'Haire
22 December 2018

Aston Villa are now unbeaten in seven

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Table-topping Leeds will look to cement their position as Christmas number one in the Championship by overcoming an improving Aston Villa outfit on Sunday afternoon. Mark O'Haire previews the encounter...

"Collectively, Aston Villa and Leeds have only failed to score in two of their combined 42 league fixtures this term. Those games have featured an average of 2.98 goals per-game with 24 paying-out for Over 2.5 Goals backers"

Aston Villa v Leeds
Sunday December 23, 13:30
Live on Sky Sports

Aston Villa maintain unbeaten streak

Aston Villa twice came from behind to seal a share of the spoils in a pulsating home 2-2 draw with Stoke last weekend. A Tammy Abraham penalty and a Jonathan Kodjia header six minutes from time ensured the two teams settled for a point each at a rain-drenched Villa Park.

Stoke enjoyed the better of the early chances with Villa goalkeeper Orjan Nyland twice called into action. But after a goalless opening 45 minutes, the Villans sprung into life after falling behind with Abraham and Anwar El-Ghazi going close. However, it was second-half substitute Kodjia who made the biggest impact, playing a key role in both equalising goals.

Manager Dean Smith saw his side slip to three points off the play-off places and admitted a draw was a fair result. The Villa boss must now decide whether to give Kodjia a starting role. Meanwhile, Henri Lansbury, Mile Jedinak, Albert Adomah and Birkir Bjarnason are available again but Jack Grealish is absent.

Leeds return to the summit

Patrick Bamford's goal on his first appearance since August secured victory for Leeds last Saturday as their 1-0 victory at Bolton sent the Whites back to the top of the Championship standings. In a match shorn of clear-cut chances, the second-half substitute took his only opportunity to seal a fifth successive success.

Beleaguered Bolton saw a header cleared off the line late on but Marcelo Bielsa's men were largely in control despite heavy rain having an impact on the quality of the contest. The Argentine's decision to sacrifice 10-goal top scorer Kemar Roofe for Bamford around the hour mark proved a shrewd move as United regained top spot.

Leeds will again be without Spanish forward Samuel Saiz, who will be joining Getafe in January. The visitors will also have to make-do without injury absentees Stuart Dallas, Luke Ayling, Gaetano Berardi and Liam Cooper in defence once more, whilst Bamford is now pushing for inclusion from the off.

Well matched form teams lock horns

Aston Villa and Leeds have an equal W28-D28-L28 record in 84 previous league meetings, although the hosts head into this encounter unbeaten in three against the West Yorkshire giants. Indeed, the Claret & Blue were 1-0 winners when the two teams locked horns here last season and are 2.447/5 to repeat the feat.

The hosts are unbeaten in seven (W4-D3-L0) coming into this clash and occupy a top-two position alongside their guests in the eight-game Expected Goals ratio table in the Championship. Villa have now W5-D3-L2 under Smith's watch, plundering 21 goals in that recent seven-match unbeaten streak.

Since their opening away day at Derby, Leeds 3.052/1 have only been chalked up at a bigger-price when travelling to Sheffield United and Bielsa's troops head into this showdown on the back of five successive victories - their best run for nine years. The Whites are dominating the major performance data metrics this season and are worthy favourites to clinch top spot in the division.

The duo are undoubtedly the two form sides in the second-tier right now and appear well-matched ahead of Sunday's clash with the draw therefore appealing at 3.6013/5 quotes.

Goals on the agenda

Collectively, Aston Villa and Leeds have only failed to score in two of their combined 42 league fixtures this term. Those games have featured an average of 2.98 goals per-game with 24 paying-out for Over 2.5 Goals 1.738/11 backers.

At Villa Park, the hosts' outings are averaging a huge 4.09 goals per-game as eight of their 11 outings have seen both sides score. In their most recent seven across all venues, the Claret & Blue have delivered a 3.86 goals per-game average, suggesting a high-scoring contest could be on the cards.

Leeds have produced more domineering and controlled performances, although the Whites' makeshift defence has yet to be truly tested and so supporting Over 2.5 Goals holds plenty of appeal with a forward-thinking Villa side keen to make their mark in the promotion race.