The Betfair Contrarian: Why Bayern Munich won't win the Champions League
Get your Bahlsen biscuits out! Things are about to get very "Vich vay to Vembley?" as the Germans take over the capital for the Champions League final. Having shown Barcelona what they can do with their tiki-taka in the semis, Bayern Munich are flavour of the season and overwhelming favourites to claim the cup. But the Betfair Contrarian has been here so many times before with Bayern, and he expects yet more tears in Bavaria before bedtime. He'll be laying Bayern at [1.82], here's why...
"Despite letting their grip on successive Bundesliga titles loosen in 2012/13, second-placed Dortmund are still unbeaten against Bayern in their previous six top-flight encounters – including a quartet of victories. If any team know how to beat FC Hollywood then it’s their nearest and not so dearest."
Bayern carry all the baggage
Losing one final hurts, but now half a dozen or so of Bayern's players face the most undesirable of football hat-tricks; losing a third European Cup final in four years. Fresh in the frontal lobes is the agony of losing to Inter in 2009/10 and then that stomach churning defeat in their very own stadium against Chelsea, a side whom they outplayed from start to finish. Should spot-kicks be required such memories could crush them again, especially the likes of Arjen Robben who shoulders most of the blame for last year's fiasco for fluffing an extra-time penalty. Munich also have the pressure of trying to become the first German side to complete the holy trinity of league, cup and European cup.
Surprises are not rare
Like the weather since global warming became fashionable, the Champions League has had a glut of unusual years recently. From Jose Mourinho's Porto getting their hands on the silverware back in 2004, through to Liverpool's astonishing comeback against Milan and most recently Chelsea sneaking it, victorious underdogs have become a regular feature of the Champions League final.
Dortmund's dominance in power struggle
Germany's power couple have traded more blows than Tom and Katy in recent times, since Dortmund's re-emergence under their charismatic coach Jurgen Klopp. But if they were to divorce right now then Dortmund would have far greater claim to the mansion house. The head-to-head over the past three seasons reads 5-2 to Dortmund with two draws thrown in. Despite letting their grip on successive Bundesliga titles loosen in 2012/13, second-placed Dortmund are still unbeaten against Bayern in their previous six top-flight encounters - including a quartet of victories. If any team know how to beat FC Hollywood then it's their nearest and not so dearest.
It's no wonder Bayern are planning on offering Dortmund an irresistible fee for their prize Pole this summer. During this season's competition alone Lewandowski has made himself the most sought after striker on the planet. Behind only Cristiano Ronaldo in the Champions League scoring charts at present with 10, the number nine has netted five times in nine appearances against Munich, four of which have arrived in finals.
Home draw is massive...
Five of the last seven winners of the Coup des Europe have drawn the home dressing room and Dortmund hare been lucky enough to be allotted it this time around. Wembley's home comforts not only housed the triumphant Barcelona last time the stadium hosted the glitziest game in club football, but it's also done its domestic dwellers proud in recent times. Of the last 13 major English finals played at Wembley nine eventual winners have scuttled out from Dortmund's side of the tunnel.
...as is history
The last and only time a European final witnessed an all German affair was the Uefa Cup back in 1980. Eintracht Frankfurt won through, beating Borussia Mönchengladbach in the final over two legs. Ominously for Bayern, the Gladbach coach back then was none other than Jupp Heynckes himself. Unlike their fellow countrymen, Die Schwarzgelben bring a 100 percent Champions League final record to the table, with a 3-1 victory over Juventus in 1997 and furthermore, Klopp's blew Bayern away in the DFB-Pokal final - the German FA Cup - last May crushing them 5-2.
Lay Bayern Munich @ [1.82]