4-1 is the most common final score at the Bernabeu this season. It would suit Real just fine on Wednesday night and Tobias Gourlay expects an open game...
"Real have scored in 30/31 Champions League games and failed to keep a clean sheet in this season's competition"
Santiago Bernabeu (Live on Sky Sports 2)
Real 1.654/6 United 5.85/1 draw 4.57/2
Manchester United have never won away at Real Madrid (W0-D2-L2). Spanish sod is generally not to their liking: they are W2-D7-L4 playing on it in the Champions League.
And Mourinho holds sway over Ferguson: the Portuguese is W6-D6-L2 going mano a mano with the Scot in competitive games.
Since trekking to the Bernabeu for a 3-1 defeat a decade ago, England's league leaders are W5-D4-L3 on the road in Champions League first-leg knockout games.
That should become W5-D4-L4 against a team that has won 9/10 home Liga games recently and 12/15 such Champions League games under Mourinho.
Goals are often few and far between at this stage: since the second group stage was abandoned a decade ago, 60% of last-16 first legs have stayed Under 2.5 Goals.
True to that sort of form, eight of United's last 12 first-leg away games have stayed Under 2.5 Goals.
But the market is not fooled. This is Real Madrid against Manchester United. Supreme attack plays shaky defence. At both ends.
United have leaked goals in 10/13 Premier League away games, while Real are without a Champions League clean sheet in nine attempts this term.
That's two goals already. Even if Ferguson shackles Phil Jones to Ronaldo, there will be freedom for others elsewhere on the pitch.
Over 2.5 Goals is 1.684/6 and deserves to be so.
Yes, they probably will.
Real have found the back of the net at least once in 30/31 Champions League games. Since Barcelona stopped them in a semi-final here a couple of years ago, they have scored 33 goals in nine European matches at the Bernabeu.
At the other end, los Merengues have failed to keep a clean sheet in this season's competition and conceded more regularly than any of the other 15 teams to reach this stage. This time, the first-choice back four are fit, but have not played together much recently, and Iker Casillas is out injured.
Robin Van Persie has scored in 11 of his last 14 appearances for United. He also located the onion bag in both of his previous Champions League away games for the club.
Real have leaked 11 in 7 Champions League games at the Bernabeu lately. With Rooney partly on defensive detail in midfield, the Dutchman looks best placed to take advantage of the hosts' generosity