Hot on the heels of another defeat, Liverpool are off to the Bernabeu and Tobias Gourlay is worried for them...
"Real have scored at least four times in 7/11 group-stage home games"
Real Madrid v Liverpool
Tuesday 19:45 (Live on ITV1)
Real 1.241/4 Liverpool 14.013/1 draw 7.87/1
Real Madrid came to Liverpool a fortnight ago and left with an easy 3-0 win under the belts. This week Spain's league leaders will not reciprocate.
Liverpool have failed to score in either of the Premier League games they've played since losing the reverse fixture at Anfield. Presumably that's a big part of why Brendan Rodgers has taken Daniel Sturridge to the Spanish capital this week. The England striker has not played for two months, but the Reds are desperate.
Carlo Ancelotti has Gareth Bale available to him for the first time in a month. The Welshman's last appearance brought a 5-0 home win over Athletic Bilbao, but Real have scored 15 times in four subsequent matches. Whether it's a 4-3-3 with Bale or a 4-4-2 without him, there are few reasons to believe Tuesday will deliver anything other than a home win.
Since 2011/12 the reigning European champions have won 16/18 Champions League matches at the Bernabeu. Over a longer period they are W13-D1-L0 in home group-stage games.
Liverpool have lost 4/6 away games in all competitions this season, including a 1-0 defeat at Basel on their first overseas assignment, and that record should get worse on Tuesday before it gets any better.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
All of Real Madrid's last 11 Champions League group-stage home games have delivered Over 2.5 Goals, which is a short-priced favourite this week.
They've conceded in 7/8, which raises the hopes of Balotelli and Lambert as well as the idea of going Over 3.5 Goals, which has been a winning bet in 9/11.
Real's margin of victory has been three goals or more in 8/11 group-stage games at the Bernabeu.
With Cristiano Ronaldo chasing personal records (see below) and the whole club keep to wipe memories of a 1-0 home defeat to the Reds in 2009, Los Blancos are unlikely to throttle back before the final whistle.
Liverpool have managed just two clean sheets in 15 competitive games this season and could be shellacked again. Real Madrid -2.5 should go off around 2.56/4.
If you are worried by Real's record of conceding in 7/8 group-stage home games at the Bernabeu, but like the idea of back them on the Asian Handicap, think about taking Any Unquoted in the Correct Score market.
Any Unquoted pays out if either team scores four times or more. It's a longer price than the handicap bet and, if Liverpool score, the only way Real -2.5 wins is if the hosts hit at least four.
Real have scored at least four times in 7/11 group-stage home games and, most recently, against 3/4 all-comers.
Cristiano Ronaldo (70) is one ahead of Leo Messi (69) in the race to overtake Raul (71) as the Champions League's all-time top goalscorer.
The Portuguese has scored in 20 of his last 21 Liga and Champions League appearances at the Bernabeu. He is just 1.511/2 to hit the back of the net and match his Real predecessor on Tuesday, but you might still fancy it.
Karim Benzema has scored in 5/5 Liga and Champions League games since the start of October and could be beyond even money by kick-off.
Recent numbers say there is value in backing a penalty to be taken at some point in the 90 minutes. There has been at least one spot kick in 6/13 of Real's Liga and Champions League games this season. You can say 'Yes' to another one at 3.259/4.
Back Any Unquoted Correct Score @ 2.915/8
Back Cristiano Ronaldo To Score @ 1.511/2
Check out the latest Betfair Sports Update where Dan Thomas joins Timeform Radio's Brett Williams to discuss Arsenal and Liverpool's games in the Champions League on Tuesday evening
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