Manchester United v Shakhtar Donetsk: Moyes must dig deep against Miners

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/football/market?id=1.112114577
Not looking so good: In the last week United have played two and lost two at Old Trafford

United haven't gone four games without a win since 2008, but Tobias Gourlay is a little bit worried for David Moyes and his men this evening

"Only four of United's last 11 group-stage home games have produced three goals or more"

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.1411/10


Manchester United v Shakhtar Donetsk
Tuesday 19:45
Live on ITV1

Match Odds
United 2.111/10 Shakhtar 3.9 draw 3.613/5

Manchester United booked their place in the knockout stages with a 5-0 bashing of Bayer Leverkusen a fortnight ago. But with the Madrid clubs, Barcelona, PSG and Bayern Munich all set to win their groups, there's quite an incentive to do likewise and stay away from them in the Last 16.

A win would take the edge off the last week's back-to-back home defeats and blunt the knives being aimed at David Moyes, while a draw would still guarantee top spot.

Should we expect the United that hit nine in two meetings with Leverkusen or the one that scored only once in three hours of football with table-bottoming Real Sociedad?

With Van Persie lacking match fitness and Carrick and Kagawa ruled out through injury, that probably depends on Wayne Rooney, who should return to the team after serving a suspension at the weekend.

But on an all-or-nothing night, you might want to punt on the all-or-nothing team. Shakhtar, who had the weekend off, are an even W8-D1-L8 in group-stage games away from home since 2007. Sure they've largely been defeated by stronger teams and notched wins against weaker teams, but who's to say United aren't sliding into the latter category?

Asian Handicap

Even under Sir Alex Ferguson, United were restrained at Old Trafford, only beating a one-goal handicap in five of their last 26 group-stage home games.

If the Match Odds market looks tightly priced, Moyes' conservatism might incline you to try Shakhtar on the Asian Handicap.

Just beware that the visitors will have to go on the attack if Leverkusen are doing well in Spain and that they have been vulnerable to heavy defeats in the past.  

Leverkusen, Dortmund, Barcelona (twice), Arsenal, Milan (twice), Roma - all have hit three or more at home to Shakhtar in the last ten years. In total, half of the Ukrainian outfit's 16 away defeats in that time have been by margins of two goals or more.

Over / Under Goals

Only four of United's last 11 group-stage home games have produced three goals or more, but Over 2.5 Goals will go off the favourite on Tuesday, in part because 15 of Shakhtar's last 21 Champions League away days have gone that way.

You're probably best off waiting to see Moyes' team before playing this market. If he's cautious, Under 2.5 Goals might appeal at odds-against prices.

After all, David De Gea has kept clean sheets in each of United's last three European outings (thanks, Opta), while Shakhtar are in parsimonious form too, keeping clean sheets in each of their last five domestic and European games.

Best Bet
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.1411/10

Recommended Bet
Back Shakhtar Draw No Bet @ 2.962/1

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