Man City v Barcelona: Back the visitors to take home the spoils

Luis Enrique's Barcelona sit proudly atop Group C with maximum points
Luis Enrique's Barcelona sit proudly atop Group C with maximum points

Luis Enrique's Barcelona head to the Etihad to take on Man City in a pivotal game in Group C of the Champions League. Luke Moore takes a look...


"Lionel Messi has already scored six goals in the competition this season, two more than anyone else."

Man City v Barcelona
Tuesday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 2


Man City

It's probably too early to call this game a 'must-win' for Pep Guardiola and his team, but Borussia Moenchengladbach are breathing down their necks in this group, and City travel there towards the end of November knowing that game will, in all probability, be pivotal.

To that end, anything City can get on Tuesday night against probably the best club side in the world will be a bonus, and it was a nice time to get a 0-4 away win in the Premier League at the weekend. West Brom obviously aren't Barcelona though, and this will present a sterner test.

Pablo Zabaleta and Bacary Sagna are both unlikely to feature due to injury and Claudio Bravo is suspended.


Barcelona

Barcelona currently sit second in La Liga, a point behind Real Madrid, but way out in front in their Champions League group. Luis Enrique's men have only conceded one goal in three games this season in Europe and are virtually assured of qualification already.

The Catalans eased past City 4-0 at the Nou Camp a week or two ago, but that game was perhaps a touch closer than the scoreline suggested - Claudio Bravo was sent off for the visitors and Lionel Messi helped himself to a hat-trick.

The combination of Messi, Luis Suarez and Neymar upfront is essentially what City need to stop, and that seems virtually impossible - across La Liga and Champions League, Barca have scored 43 goals already this season.


Match Odds

Barca will start the game as narrow favourites and currently trade at 2.546/4, which is perhaps larger than might be expected, possibly due to an underwhelming result against Granada at the weekend.

Man City are a fair amount longer (2.9215/8), and the Draw currently sits at a big-looking 3.7511/4.

I am not sure City can be backed here - they won't keep Barca out, in this writer's opinion, and they're too inconsistent as things currently stand. I understand Guardiola is going to recall Sergio Aguero after his decent showing against West Brom at the weekend, but I'm unsure if Pep knows his best team at the moment and I can't muster any confidence about the home side when their first-choice 'keeper is suspended and their central defence seems so unreliable.

The Draw tempts at the price, but I think Barcelona are worthy favourites.


Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The market, somewhat unsurprisingly, hugely favours Overs here - it's priced at just 1.584/7. Everyone expects goals when Barcelona come to town, and it's easy to see why. As I wrote earlier, 43 goals already this season in La Liga and Champions League football is seriously impressive.

If you fancy a cagey affair and City to keep Messi, Suarez and Neymar out, you can back Unders at a chunky 2.6813/8. Rather you than me, though.


To Score

At the time of writing, Lionel Messi is currently 2.486/4 to score a goal at any time during this game. To me that seems big, I've regularly seen him at odds-on prices in Champions League group games to bag an anytime goal, and so it has to be backed - he's already scored six goals in the competition this season, two more than anyone else.


Recommended Bets

Back Lionel Messi to score any time at 2.486/4
Back Barcelona to win at 2.546/4


Luke Moore 2016-17 P/L

Staked: 31pts
Returned: 49.88pts
P/L: +18.88pts

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