Liverpool v Man City: Impossible to ignore a goals-based bet

Mark O'Haire
03 April 2018

Jurgen Klopp has beaten Pep Guardiola on six occasions

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The Premier League's two best attacking teams lock horns at Anfield for a mouthwatering Champions League quarter-final first leg. Mark O'Haire previews the encounter...

"It’s almost impossible not to imagine goals in this game. Collectively the duo average 3.48 goals per-game in Premier League fixtures with 44/63 (70%) producing Over 2.5 Goals profit"

Liverpool v Manchester City
Wednesday 4th April, 19:45 BST
Live on BT Sport

Liverpool warm up with a win

Mohamed Salah scored his 29th Premier League goal of the season - equalling the league record of scoring in 21 matches in a 38-game season - as Liverpool came from behind to beat Crystal Palace 2-1 at Selhurst Park on Saturday.

Jurgen Klopp named a strong starting line-up in his 100th Premier League game in charge despite expectations he would rest several key players. But the Reds' first-half performance lacked intensity and imagination as they fell behind, only for Sadio Mane and Salah to rescue the points after the interval.

Adam Lallana suffered a hamstring injury in a brief cameo and will now be absent from Wednesday night's clash, while Emre Can is a doubt. Meanwhile, Nathaniel Clyne returned to the bench after a long lay-off alongside Alex Oxlade Chamberlain and Dejan Lovren who'll both be pushing for starts here.

Manchester City saunter to Goodison Park success

Manchester City warmed up for Wednesday with the easiest of 3-1 victories at Everton. The result was never in doubt from the moment Leroy Sane volleyed home after four minutes; Gabriel Jesus and Raheem Sterling adding the extra before half-time at Goodison Park.

City, with David Silva the superb orchestrator, operated on cruise control throughout - barely breaking sweat to close in on the Premier League title. Pep Guardiola's group concluded the contest with 82% of the ball - the highest by an away side in a Premier League game since such data became available.

Defender John Stones remains doubtful having missed the weekend's clash with concussion and Aymeric Laporte will also be assessed having picked up a foot injury. However, Sergio Aguero is expected to return to the fold and replace Gabriel Jesus in City's attack here.

Reds may match Citizens at Anfield

Manchester City 2.466/4 have managed a sole success at Anfield in 31 visits across all competitions dating back to 1981 and the Citizens will be returning to the scene of their only Premier League reverse this season. Liverpool 3.052/1 led 4-1 in that January encounter, only for City to strike twice in the final 10 minutes.

Jurgen Klopp boasts a W2-D1-L1 record over Pep Guardiola in the Premier League - the one defeat saw Liverpool play over half the game with 10 men - and the German has also handed Pep more defeats than any other manager in his career (six).

The Reds have been beaten just once in 23 home outings in 2017/18 - West Brom in the FA Cup - and hold a W9-D5-L0 record here in Europe since defeat to Real Madrid in 2014. So there's reason to believe the added atmosphere and intensity can drive them towards a positive performance and result.

Manchester City have passed the eye test this term, playing some of the best football the Premier League has ever seen. However, there's very little difference in the data between these two teams over the past eight and 16 matches, suggesting the visitors may not have it all their own way on Wednesday.

With that in mind, there's enough mileage in 1.8810/11 quotes to support Liverpool with a +0/0.5 start on the Asian Handicap line. This selection would see us make money should the Reds avoid defeat - a half-stakes profit is made on the stalemate with a full-stakes pay-out made on a home success.

Impossible to overlook a goals-based bet

Liverpool and Man City have already played out two fabulous Premier League contests this season and the expectation is for a repeat at Anfield this midweek. Meetings between the pair tend to be high-scoring with 11 of the previous 14 featuring Over 2.5 Goals and eight breaking the Over 3.5 Goals barrier.

It's a confrontation between the two best attacking sides in the Premier League, with 163 goals between them, and I'd be stunned if either manager took a cautious approach here. Both managerial styles are so entrenched that neither is likely depart from them, even in a game of this importance.

For all their attacking prowess, the duo have been plagued by defensive errors. Neither side can call upon a rock-solid back four and with two backlines that will be keen to push high up the pitch, forward lines should be presented with numerous opportunities in danger areas.

It's almost impossible not to imagine goals in this game. Collectively the duo average 3.48 goals per-game in Premier League fixtures with 44/63 (70%) producing Over 2.5 Goals profit, making the 1.748/11 available on three strikes or more here a very appealing angle of attack.