Jonno Turner looks ahead to Tuesday's clash between Arsenal and Fenerbahce at the Emirates and even though the Gunners have one foot in the next round, there is still much value to be had in this tie...
"Plumping for Over 2.5 Goals would have come up trumps in 11 of the Gunners' last 15 home outings in this competition, and, domestically, seven of their last 10 - and with their defence looking a little makeshift at the moment, I reckon that there is real value in that."
Arsenal v Fenerbahce
Live on ITV 1
Arsenal welcome Fenerbahce to the Emirates on Tuesday night to play out the second leg of their Champions League qualifying round tie - and, on the face of it, the visitors look dead and buried ahead of this game.
A 3-0 win in the first meeting between these two sides sees the Gunners go into this clash with all of the momentum and with one foot in the group stages - but Arsene Wenger will be desperate for his side not to let inconsistency slip back into their game.
Following a 3-1 opening day home loss to Aston Villa, the media rounded upon the north London side, and many were expecting Fenerbahce to heap further misery on Arsenal during the first leg last week - so it was with pleasant surprise that the visitors nicked not one, but three away goals - not to mention a clean sheet - in the Sukru Saracoglu Stadium.
Wenger has intimated that he will not be ringing the changes for this clash, and will instead rest a few players who are feeling the early season pace more than others, and the home side will see this game as a great opportunity to build on Saturday's 3-1 defeat of Fulham, and prove that the first leg was no fluke.
Fenerbahce travel to the capital having had their confidence knocked by the result of that tie - and in truth they never really got going on their own patch.
Ersun Yanal's side certainly possess quality in their squad, and the likes of Raul Meireles, Dirk Kuyt and Emre have all seen their fair share of continental competition, but things just didn't click in the first tie, and - barring a miracle - that looks to have cost them their place in the next round of this trophy.
The visitors go into this clash with nothing to lose, and will know that if they are to stand any chance of engineering an epic turnaround in this tie then they need to get on the scoresheet first.
Yanal's side do have a decent scoring record on the road though, and have only failed to notch in two of their last 19 Super Lig and Champions League outings, which will give them confidence that they can trouble an Arsenal defence which is famous for being partial to a slip or two.
Wenger's side are likely to welcome back Laurent Koscielny at centre half following his suspension against Fulham - but having obtained a nasty head injury in the reverse fixture last week, the Frenchman may be rested for this outing.
With Bacary Sagna and Per Mertesacker in the heard of defence at the weekend, Arsenal dominated their hosts and played some excellent football at their own pace - but tellingly, still ended up shipping a goal in the 77th minute.
In fact, the Gunners have only managed two clean sheets from their last dozen competitive outings at the Emirates - and that suggests that, under pressure from a Fener side throwing the kitchen sink, they are likely to gift their opponents a chance or two on Tuesday - making the 1.738/11 available on the home side blotting their copy book a nice little bet.
The Gunners will want to do what they do best in this tie - get hold of the ball and dominate possession - and with Fenerbahce desperate for a goal, I can see this game being stretched from the off.
Yanal has included new signing Emmanuel Emenike is his squad for this trip to north London, and he certainly has the pace to trouble the Arsenal backline - which makes him decent value at 10.5 to break the deadlock in this clash.
We all know that Kuyt will run all day, and although he is often seen as more of a provider than a scorer, he has a decent record in Turkey. Eight goals last season saw him far outdo the two he notched during his final year at Liverpool - and having nicked the winner against Eskisehirspor at the weekend, he will be keen to build on that form at 15.014/1.
For the hosts, Olivier Giroud (4.77/2) is firm favourite to add to the fine form he has shown in the early part of the new campaign by notching first in front of his own fans - but I fancy that Wenger will use the opportunity to give new signing Yaya Sanogo a run out - and he is available at a tasty 6.86/1 to stretch his side's aggregate lead to four goals.
Although many are expecting this clash to be something of a dead rubber, I reckon that the need for the visitors to grab a goal will lead to a few chances at both ends.
Plumping for Over 2.5 Goals would have come up trumps in 11 of the Gunners' last 15 home outings in this competition, and, domestically, seven of their last 10 - and with their defence looking a little makeshift at the moment, I reckon that there is real value in that.
As for the visitors - there have been at least three goals scored in six of their last 10 Champions League away trips - and with defensive stalwart Joseph Yobo missing this clash through injury, the hosts will be looking to channel the momentum and vigour that they have fostered over the last week into goals on their own patch.
The Over 2.5 Goals market is currently trading at 1.695/7 - and I think that's worth a flutter.