Champions League Quarter-Final Tipsheet: Bayern beware!

James Horncastle
01 April 2018

Trap game for Bayern

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The Champions League quarter-finals are upon us and there are some mouthwatering ties on the cards, as James Horncastle discusses

When you put your "closest rival" to the sword in German football's most televised game 6-0, it's an ominous sign.

Bayern mustn't underestimate Sevilla

Sevilla v Bayern
Tuesday, 19:45 GMT
Live on BT Sport

When you put your "closest rival" to the sword in German football's most televised game 6-0, it's an ominous sign. In truth Der Klassiker has been trending in this direction for some time. Bayern demolished Dortmund at the Allianz Arena 4-1 last year and 5-1 the year before that.

It's hard to know what to take away from it as we head into the Champions League quarter-finals. All it does is entrench an already well-established feeling that Bayern are in a league of their own in Germany and their season should be judged by what they achieve in Europe. On paper Bayern have a favourable run to the semi-finals. The exchange makes them 1.152/13 to Qualify.

But underestimate Sevilla at your peril. They raise their game in knock-out competitions. A culture has been created at the club over the last decade whereby the fans believe anything is possible and that transmits to the players. Atletico Madrid and Manchester United have discovered that to their cost in the Copa del Rey and Champions League this season. On Saturday night Barcelona needed Lionel Messi to come to the rescue four minutes from time to get a point at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan. Bayern can't afford to be presumptuous.

For all the praise lavished on them after Der Klassiker, Dortmund made Bayern look good by selecting the wrong team and being so meek of character. Naturally you would expect Bayern to attack Sevilla more than United did at the Pizjuan. But Vincenzo Montella's side are definitely worth a look on Double Chance @ 2.3211/8.

An Old Lady's revenge

Juventus v Real Madrid
Tuesday, 19:45 GMT
Live on BT Sport

Gigi Buffon summed it up. "It's difficult to do worse than we did in Cardiff," he said on Saturday night. This week's quarter-final against Real Madrid is a chance for Juventus to redeem themselves for their second-half performance in last season's final.

The Bianconeri beat AC Milan on Saturday night in what felt like another pivotal moment in European football's only title race. Napoli's slip up against Sassuolo earlier in the evening was capitalised on as Juventus edged an even game in Turin.

Madrid are bizarrely fourth favourites on the exchange @ 5.95/1 despite hitting top form at exactly the right time. Max Allegri can't get his head around it and the Juventus coach isn't just playing to the gallery. Madrid feel more at home in this competition than anybody else. He believes their winning tradition matters whatever state they're in and it just so happens Madrid have won 10 of their last 11 games.

Not that Juventus are fazed by their opponents. They have knocked out the two Spanish giants over two legs in two of the last three years. The only reason Madrid haven't won the Champions League four years running is because Juve got in their way in 2015. A big part of that is the Allianz Stadium effect. Juventus have only lost once in Europe there since it opened seven years ago and that was when Bayern eliminated them en route to the treble in 2013. The Old Lady is priced @ 2.789/5 to win on Tuesday night.

Pep's Klopp kryptonite?

Liverpool v Man City
Wednesday, 19:45 GMT
Live on BT Sport

Anfield on European nights is extraordinary. The energy the place generates exalts Liverpool. It lifts the team to new heights. Opponents, on the other hand, find themselves in the eye of a storm. It ups the difficulty rating. The amazing happens. Think back to Saint Etienne, the Chelsea games and the ghost goal, and more recently the Dortmund tie in the Europa League.

The atmosphere will have a big influence in the first leg. Less so in the second amid reports City are struggling to sell out the Etihad. City suffered their one and only Premier League defeat here in January, a barnstorming 4-3 in which Liverpool were 4-1 up going into the final six minutes.

Whether Jurgen Klopp's side can replicate that remains to be seen but Pep Guardiola has lost to the German more than any other manager (six games). The Reds are 3.052/1 to win on Wednesday evening.

The Wolf pack in Barcelona

Barcelona v Roma
Wednesday, 19:45 GMT
Live on BT Sport

Roma's preparations for Barcelona were far from ideal. Not only did they draw in Bologna, allowing Inter and Lazio to gain ground on them in the Champions League race, the Lupi lost Radja Nainggolan to injury. The Belgian rarely ever hobbles off, which is a bad sign because, as underlined by Roma coach Eusebio di Francesco, when he does it means it is serious.

The Ninja will be missed. Nainggolan helps set the tone when it comes to Roma's intensity and the pitch at the Camp Nou will feel a bit bigger without his presence in the middle of the park. That said, Roma can still cause Barcelona problems. When their pressing game clicks it can force big mistakes.

They deserved to top a group few people expected them to get out of, comprise as it did Chelsea and Atletico Madrid. Edin Dzeko scored arguably the goal of the competition so far at Stamford Bridge. Four of his last five goals have come on the road and he has made a habit of leaving a mark on big games this season. You can back Both Teams to Score @ 1.8810/11