Manchester United and Chelsea both face difficult tasks in the Champions League this week, although bettors are far more confident that the former will reach the quarter-finals. Elsewhere, Bayern are a shoo-in to qualify and Roma need to turn things around against Shakhtar...
"Chelsea have a good record against Barca and are unbeaten in their last eight Champions League games against them (W2 D6). Chelsea's last four visits to Camp Nou have ended level."
Man Utd v Sevilla
Tuesday March 13, 19:45 GMT
First Leg Result: Sevilla 0-0 Man Utd
League Position: Man Utd 2, Sevilla 5
Five Game Form (all comps, most recent first): WWWDW, LWWLD
Top Scorer: Romelu Lukaku 22, Wissam Ben Yedder 14
Match Odds: Man Utd [1.64] Sevilla [6.8] Draw [4.0]
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over [1.92] Under [2.0]
To Qualify: Man Utd [1.49], Porto [3.0]
Opta Stat: Manchester United haven't managed to score more than one goal in any of their last 15 Champions League encounters with Spanish opposition (7 goals total).
Summary: Manchester United had to rely on the excellence of David De Gea to earn a 0-0 draw in the first leg, but bettors expect them to overcome Sevilla at Old Trafford on Tuesday, and Mike Holden agrees. For some fans, the first leg was a new low for Jose Mourinho's ultra-defensive United. They will surely be more attacking at Old Trafford and try to show the same verve they displayed when defeating Liverpool at the weekend. That said, United have a poor scoring record against Spanish sides in this competition. Sevilla, who come in to the match on the back of a 2-0 defeat to Valencia, have never won a Champions League game in England. United have the second best defence in the competition, so under 2.5 goals is favoured by bettors.
Roma v Shakhtar Donetsk
Tuesday March 13, 19:45 GMT
First Leg Result: Shakhtar 2-1 Roma
League Position: Roma 3, Shakhtar 1
Five Game Form (all comps, most recent first): Roma WWLLW, Shakhtar WWWWW
Top Scorer: Edin Dzeko 16, Facundo Ferreyra 27
Match Odds: Roma [1.76], Shakhtar [5.0], Draw [4.2]
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over [1.64] Under [2.24]
To Qualify: Roma [2.0], Shakhtar [1.97]
Opta Stat: Shakhtar Donetsk have won four of their five competitive games against Roma (L1), all in the Champions League.
Summary: The odds on qualifying show that this one remains very tight. After losing the first leg 2-1 in the Ukraine, Roma will cling to the fact that, in the Champions League, 52% of sides that lose by that scoreline away from home in the first leg end up progressing. They will be more reluctant to think about their appalling record against Shakhtar in this competition. It promises to be a big night in the Italian capital and Eusebio Di Francesco will demand a big performance from his Roma players, as they bid to reach he quarter-finals for the third time in their history. They've kept a clean sheet in their last three Champions League games at home and unders is fancied. Shakhtar have lost six of their last seven away matches in this tournament.
Barcelona v Chelsea
Wednesday March 14, 19:45 GMT
First Leg Result: Chelsea 1-1 Barcelona
League Position: Barcelona 1, Chelsea 5
Five Game Form (all comps, most recent first): Barcelon WWDWD, Chelsea WLLDW
Top Scorer: Lionel Messi 28, Eden Hazard 15
Match Odds: Barcelona [1.45] Chelsea [8.8] Draw [4.9]
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over [1.64] Under [2.32]
To Qualify: Barcelona [1.25], Chelsea are [4.7].
Opta Stat: Barcelona have only lost four of their 39 Champions League knockout games at home (W25 D10), with Liverpool the only English team to win there (2-1 in February 2007).
Summary: Chelsea would have felt more confident about their trip to the Nou Camp if they'd held on to their 1-0 lead in the first leg. As it is, bettors are backing Barca to cruise past the English club at Camp Nou when the sides meet for the 14th time in this competition. The Blues have been unpredictable this season but they have been solid in the Champions League and, at times, impressive, outplaying Barca for much of the first leg and winning in Spain against Atletico Madrid. Chelsea have a good record against Barca and are unbeaten in their last eight Champions League games against them (W2 D6). Chelsea's last four visits to Camp Nou have ended level, so the [4.9] available on the draw could be value. Mind you, James Horncastle believes Antonio Conte's men are in for a torrid night.
Besiktas v Bayern Munich
Wednesday March 14, 19:45 GMT
First Leg Result: Bayern 5-0 Besiktas
League Position: Besiktas 2, Bayern 1
Five Game Form (all comps, most recent first): Bayern WWDWW, Besiktas WWWLD
Top Scorer: Anderson Talisca 14, Robert Lewandowski 28
Match Odds: Besiktas [5.6], Bayern [1.63] Draw [4.7]
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Overs [1.45], Unders [2.88]
To Qualify: You cannot back Bayern to qualify, while Besiktas are [300.0]
Opta Stat: Besiktas have now lost all three of their Champions League matches against Bayern, losing by an aggregate score of 0-9.
Summary: Turkey can be an intimidating place for visiting sides in the Champions League but Bayern Munich go to the Ataturk Olympic Stadium on Wednesday knowing they virtually guaranteed their place in the quarter-finals after thumping Besiktas 5-0 in the first leg. Will Bayern ease off in the second leg and give bettors reason to take the long odds available on a home win? It seems unlikely, as Jupp Heynckes' side have won their last five Champions League games, the longest current run in the competition, and will want to keep the momentum going. On the other hand, the German side have won just one of their last ten away knockout games in the competition, drawing four and losing five, so perhaps that's a reason to getting behind the Turkish side.