Champions League Betting: Judgement day for Juve and PSG

James Horncastle
05 March 2018

Max Allegri is bullish about Juventus' chances at Spurs on Wednesday

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After disappointing a fortnight ago, it's up to Juventus and PSG to show what they're made of this week, as James Horncastle explains...

"Massimiliano Allegri is bullish about Juventus' prospects of going through. He thinks things can only get better."

It's not over till the Old Lady sings

Tottenham v Juventus
Wednesday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport

Juventus know they are up against it. Nevertheless they remain quietly confident of qualification at Wembley on Wednesday night.

Saturday's stoppage time win against Lazio was not encouraging in terms of performance. The Old Lady recognise she will have to play a lot better to have a chance against Spurs. However, the exhilaration Paulo Dybala's 92nd minute strike caused should not be underestimated. It swung the title race back in Juventus' favour and means they go to Wembley under less pressure than they otherwise might have been. The mood in the camp is buoyant.

Whether Dybala plays or not on Wednesday is a matter of some debate. Gonzalo Higuain is expected to return after an ankle knock and has unfinished business from the first leg. Pipita put Juventus 2-0 up early on but then missed a glorious opportunity to make it 3-0 on the counter-attack. He also failed from the penalty spot at the start of the second half with the score 2-1.

Memories of those opportunities explain why Massimiliano Allegri is bullish about Juventus' prospects of going through. He thinks things can only get better. Juventus' pass completion rate in Turin was in the 50s. For a team of their technical ability it's hard to conceive of them doing as badly again, although the cheapness with which they gave the ball away in Rome at the weekend suggests otherwise.

Crucially Juventus do have Blaise Matuidi back. The Frenchman was a big miss two weeks ago and led Allegri to move away from the system that had served the Bianconeri so well up until that point. Giorgio Chiellini was rested at the weekend. Alex Sandro and Douglas Costa were second half substitutes. It was clear from Allegri's team selection that Spurs were on his mind.

Juventus find themselves in a similar situation to two years ago. They drew 2-2 with Pep Guardiola's Bayern in Turin and looked done for only to then race into a 2-0 lead at the Allianz Arena. It should have been 3-0 but for the linesman incorrectly adjudging an Alvaro Morata goal offside. Juventus couldn't make it stick. A combination of Patrice Evra cock ups and the decision to replace Morata with Mario Mandzukic allowed Bayern to get back into it, take the game to extra-time and win.

One imagines Allegri will have learned from that experience. He reached the final for the second time in three years last season. Juventus are 3.65 to qualify.

Paris St-Germain v Real Madrid
Tuesday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport

No Neymar, No Problem?

Confidence in PSG turning this tie around is low. A big part of that comes down to perception. The 3-1 defeat the Bernabeu fits neatly with this idea of PSG's knees trembling when the pressure is on. As against Barcelona last season, the Parisiens can't hold their nerve. Having something to defend brings out the worst in them.

Whether that's true or not, Tuesday's game at the Parc represents an opportunity to set that straight and prove people wrong. Eliminating the holders from 3-1 behind without the player you paid a world record transfer fee for would send a strong the message.

According to Diego Torres' latest PSG expose, a significant portion of the dressing room believes they're better off without Neymar. One source told him: "With Neymar we had a 5% chance. Now we have 50%." It clashes with what PSG have said in public. "With Neymar we have another level," sporting director Antero Henrique told L'Equipe at the weekend. He also put pressure on UEFA to name an experienced referee, claiming PSG were hard done by in Barcelona and that the officiating was no better in Madrid. "It's a lack of respect for Paris and for France."

PSG have the talent to upset Madrid. They didn't just sign Neymar last summer. Kylian Mbappe is now a PSG player too, much to the chagrin of Zinedine Zidane who expected to have him at his disposal this season.

Whether Unai Emery can devise the right strategy and silence the critics of his in-game management remains to be seen. Emery's team selection and substitutions came under major scrutiny a fortnight ago. It was felt they played into Zidane's hands.

In fairness to him though, PSG did take the lead and had a couple of chances in the final 10 minutes. The difference is: so did Madrid and they ruthlessly took them. PSG are 4.216/5 to qualify.

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