Dan Fitch thinks that Basel's price is much too big when they face a Benfica team without a Champions League win this season.
"It seems a generous price for the away win against unmotivated hosts."
Benfica [3.0] v Basel [2.52]; The Draw [3.6]
Live on BT Sport Extra
Basel have advantage over qualification rival
It's a crucial match for Basel who could progress to the last-16 of the Champions League for only the third time in their history.
Currently second in Group A, Basel are tied on points with CSKA Moscow thanks to a late winner against Manchester United in the last round of games. CSKA now face a tough away match at United - who still need a point to guarantee that they progress - putting Basel in the driving seat to qualify.
Basel after all, face a Benfica side that have lost all five of their group games and have no motivation other than to avoid total humiliation. Raphael Wicky's team have won their last five games on the bounce in all competitions and will be high on confidence.
Benfica could well elect to rotate for what is now a meaningless match for them, with a crucial game against Estoril to come at the weekend. Although their form in the Champions League has been dreadful, Benfica have retained their standards in the Primeira Liga, where they trail the leaders Porto by a mere three points.
Place cautious bet on Basel win
Basel are the favourites at [2.52], with Benfica at [3.0] and the draw out at [3.6].
It seems a generous price for the away win against unmotivated hosts. It's even big enough to make Basel a decent option at [1.83] in the Draw No Bet market, which based on Champions League form, looks like a pretty safe investment.
Back Basel draw no bet at [1.83]