Real Madrid v Bayern Munich: Benzema to lead Real back to Munich

Karim Benzema has scored in every Champions League game he's played in Madrid this season

Tobias Gourlay has a long shot for the big game in Spain and hopes that Karim Benzema has his shooting boots on too

"Four goals for the home team is the new normal at the Bernabeu"

Wednesday 19:45
Live on ITV1

Real 1.548/15 Bayern Munich 7.06/1 draw 4.77/2

Real Madrid

Saturday evening's win over Barcelona has boosted morale and allowed Jose Mourinho to focus almost exclusively on the Champions League, but is there a physical cost to having so recently played a tough game against the world's most energetic team?

Jose Mourinho picked the same XI for that game and the first leg of this tie. He might do the same again, although Marcelo, Kaka and Higuain are available as direct replacements for the incumbents Coentrao, Ozil and Benzema.

Bayern Munich

FC Hollywood have not enjoyed too many happy endings at the Bernabeu recently, losing each of their last four games there, including the 2010 final against Mourinho's Inter.

Jupp Heynckes team are at least better rested than their opponents. The coach made many changes for Saturday's league fixture with Werder Bremen.

Mario Gomez scored Bayern's late winner in the first leg and will return to the starting lineup in Spain. In total he has 12 Champions League goals this season, but only one of those strikes has come away from the Allianz Arena.

If the visitors are to cause an upset, perhaps Franck Ribery will be the star. Among Barcelona's failings at the weekend was an inability to get any of their attackers in behind Real's full-backs. The Frenchman has the attributes to make a nuisance of himself in exactly those positions.

Match Odds

A draw is good enough for Bayern to go home with a place in the final, but it's not a result they're very familiar with: only one of their last 30 Champions League games has finished all-square.

Real have won 10/11 home games in the competition since Mourinho took charge and justifiably start as odds-on favourites to win in 90 minutes against a team that has already lost away to Manchester City and Basel this season, and been held to a draw in Naples.

Over/Under Goals

Real have scored as many goals as anyone in this year's competition (33 in 11 games). In deficit after the first leg they will be chasing this game from the first whistle and it's reasonable to expect a few goals in the course of the 90 minutes.

Under Mourinho, they have scored Over 2.5 Goals on their own in 8/11 at the Bernabeu and only once - in defeat to Barcelona last season - failed to score twice.

In the campaign to date all six of Bayern's away games, including a qualifier in Zurich, have stayed Under 2.5 Goals.

Over 2.5 Goals doesn't stand out at 1.645/8. Over 3.5 Goals (2.526/4) would be preferable, except that the game might shut down if the score reaches 2-1 to Real, as both teams get nervous about making a fatal mistake and cautiously await extra-time.

To Score

Cristiano Ronaldo raised a new challenge at the weekend to Lionel Messi in the previously one-sided scrap to be the world's best player, but on Wednesday the value in this market appears to be with Karim Benzema.

The Frenchman has scored in half of his ten Champions League appearances this season, including all four at the Bernabeu. Netting seven goals in total, he's just one shy of his Portuguese colleague, but his anytime goalscorer price will be much longer - out beyond 2.56/4. Hopefully he still has his shooting boots.

Correct Score

Four goals for the hosts is the new normal at the Bernabeu. Real have smashed quartets of goals past 16/22 Liga and Champions League visitors this season. Eager for personal success, lightning-fast counter-attackers like Ronaldo and Benzema are clinical dismantlers of tired opponents towards the ends of games.

Bayern have a good goalkeeper and a reasonable defensive record of late, but, if they end up having to chase this match, they will be as vulnerable as anyone. Backing Any Unquoted in the Correct Score market, which is effectively a bet on at least one team to score at least four times, looks worth a small stake at 5.79/2.

Best Bet: Back Karim Benzema @ 2.6213/8 To Score
Recommended Bet: Back Any Unquoted Correct Score @ 5.79/2

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