Carling Cup / Mike Norman / 20 January 2009 /

They may have lost 1-0 in the first leg and will be resting a few key players, but that's not to say that Man Utd can't steamroll Championship opponents Derby County tonight in the second leg of their Carling Cup semi-final. And wily old Ryan Giggs may be just the man to start the rout, says "Mystical" Mike Norman.

It was only last season that Manchester United v Derby County was a Premier League fixture, albeit a straightforward one for a full strength United side (4-1 winners). Tonight though it's Carling Cup action, with the European and World Club Champions trailing 1-0 to lowly Championship side Derby after the first leg.

Will United turn the tie around? You bet they will. Even at below full strength, Fergie's fringe players will be chomping at the bit to put Nigel Clough's Rams to the slaughter.

The Match Odds market agrees - United can be backed at just [1.2] for a victory tonight, The Draw is available at [8.2], and Derby can be backed at [21.0]. In the To Qualify market, Man Utd are [1.23] to reach Wembley whilst Derby County can be backed at [5.1].

Don't be put off by the prospect of Sir Alex fielding a weakened line-up for the game. Already this season United have fielded below full strength teams against Middlesbrough and Blackburn in this competition, scoring three and five goals respectively. Added to the youthful looking squad that includes Rafael, Fabio, Darron Gibson and Danny Welbeck are such stars like Cristiano Ronaldo, Carlos Tevez, Nani, Anderson, Ryan Giggs, Michael Carrick and Paul Scholes - not such a weak looking squad now is it?

Derby have an almost impossible task to hold on to their slender lead, so much so in fact that I think backing Man Utd/Man Utd in the Half Time/ Full Time market, even at [1.62], represents cracking value.

Granted, the Red Devils haven't been at their free-scoring best in the league this season, but in 'win or bust' cup competitions where there is a lot more urgency and tempo, the story is somewhat different. They put four past Celtic over two legs in the Champions League, five past Aalborg, three past Southampton in the FA Cup, scored six in their two games in the World Club Cup, and as mentioned earlier, they scored eight in the two Carling Cup games against Premier League opposition.

And just to highlight further the enormity of Derby's task, United have won 14 of their last 15 games at Old Trafford (their only failure to win was a 2-2 draw against Aalborg when they'd already qualified). So whatever the line-up tonight (and it has been weakened in numerous cup games this season), I full expect a home win.... and a convincing one at that.

Correct Scores of 2-0 ([6.8]) and 3-0 ([7.2]) will be popular choices, but I personally tend to prefer Any Unquoted in games like this where a glut of goals can easily be expected. You can back Any Unquoted at [3.8], and this will cover you for any score that includes a four or higher in it.

It would be unforgiving of me not to mention Derby at some point in this preview as they are a decent side, suffering a huge hangover from their Premier League relegation. They are four from four in cup competitions away from home this season, though they have failed to win on the road in the league since October. Worryingly, this season's leading goalscorer Nathan Ellington is injured for tonight's game, though on a much brighter note, defenders Jordan Stewart and Paul Connolly return from suspension.

Over 2.5 Goals has to be the call in that particular market, and at just [1.65] to back, it looks like many of you agree. You can back Under 2.5 Goals at [2.52], but in what promises to be an entertaining and open cup game I'd be a layer ([2.58] to lay) if that's your preferred method of wagering.

Over 3.5 Goals ([2.66]) and even Over 4.5 Goals ([4.9]) shouldn't be discounted without serious thought, especially if Sir Alex opts for an attacking line-up that includes some of his senior players.

The First Goalscorer market is an extremely difficult one to call simply because we don't know the line-ups at this stage. I'm quite confident that the first goal will go to someone that starts the game as I fancy United to score early. I have a sneaky feeling that Giggs might start, and he can be backed at [9.8] to bag the first goal, but at bigger prices don't rule out Darron Gibson ([17.5]) or a debut goal from Zoran Tosic ([11.5]) - both whom are likely to start the game.

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