Swindon v Chelsea: Expect goals as Mata goes on a mission

Swindon v Chelsea
Tuesday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 2

It has been 20 seasons since Swindon Town met Chelsea in a competitive fixture. That Premier League double header ended with Blues manager Glenn Hoddle out-witting his long-time assistant John Gorman on both occasions. Since then, the contrast in fortunes of the two clubs could not have been more different.

Roman Abramovich's billions have catapulted Chelsea into Europe's band of elite clubs whereas, after relegation in that 1993-94 season, Swindon have never looked like returning to the top flight. They now sit in 11th place in League One and are looking to cause Jose Mourinho and his talented squad an upset on Tuesday evening.

The Portuguese has promised Juan Mata a chance to impress following his criticism of the Spanish playmaker this weekend. There are no major injury worries for the Blues but Mourinho will ring the changes from the line-up which defeated Fulham at the weekend.

Meanwhile, Swindon are looking to follow up an away victory over QPR in the last round with an even bigger scalp. They will need summer signings Ryan Mason and Nile Ranger to continue their fine form in front of goal if they are to have a chance of victory.

Match Odds

It is very hard to look past Chelsea in this League Cup tie, hence a price of 1.392/5, but as Bradford City proved last season, anything can happen. Swindon's home advantage combined with the fact Mourinho is likely to rotate his squad means the draw at 5.14/1 is a better play here, with Cash Out potential. With a much changed Chelsea side likely to take their time settling in to the game, Draw/Chelsea in the Half Time/Full Time market at [4.6] also looks like a decent price.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

There were 99 goals scored in the last round of the Capital One Cup which featured 25 matches at an average of 3.96 goals per game. In fact, the League Cup has a history of being very fruitful for attackers, especially when an experimental Premier League team travels to a lower division team with nothing to lose. I'm expecting that trend to continue at the County Ground on Tuesday evening so 2.526/4 on Over 3.5 goals is worth a dabble.

To Score

When you look at who is going to score the goals, we are immediately drawn to Chelsea's abundance of attacking talent. Fringe players such as Demba Ba and Kevin De Bruyne will be a threat to Swindon. 

However, the real value lies at the feet of Mata, who is available at 1.910/11 to score anytime. The Spaniard has been given a mission to prove he is good enough to be a regular at Stamford Bridge and he should use Tuesday's game to show Mourinho what he is capable of.

If Swindon are to find the back of the net, Ranger is the most likely to score. Tottenham loanee Mason has also been in great form, netting four times already this season.

Recommended Bets

Back Draw/Chelsea in the at Half Time/Full Time market at 4.67/2
Back over 3.5 Goals at 2.526/4
Back Juan Mata To Score at 1.910/11