Man City v West Ham: Hammers to be hammered

Man City v West Ham
Wednesday January 08, 19.45 GMT
Live on Sky Sports 1

Manchester City are beginning to look very dangerous after a few early season hiccups away from home. Despite being held at Ewood Park in the FA Cup on Saturday the 2012 Premier League champions are in excellent form. They haven't lost since the 1-0 defeat at Sunderland back in November - a spell of 13 games - and they've beaten everyone bar Blackburn and Southampton.

Manuel Pellegrini has turned the Etihad into even more of a fortress than it was under Roberto Mancini. Aside from a defeat to Bayern Munich in the Champions League, it's been wins all the way. Even if they had given their opposition a one goal head start, they'd still have won every other match apart from the recent pair against Liverpool and Crystal Palace.

The big question ahead of this fixture is whether the manager will rest some of his key players. I wouldn't envisage too many changes, as in the last round against Leicester, the likes of David Silva, Jesus Navas, Vincent Kompany and Pablo Zabaleta all started. I don't expect Yaya Toure to be in the starting XI, but apart from him, I'd imagine it will be a strong team as they'd rather get the job done at home and then play more fringe players in the return leg.

West Ham come into this match on the back of a humiliating 5-0 defeat at Nottingham Forest in the FA Cup on Sunday. Sam Allardyce did field a few younger players as he prioritised this game and the forthcoming clash with Cardiff, but Stewart Downing, Matt Jarvis, Ravel Morrison and Modibo Maiga all started.

The Upton Park faithful must be completely disillusioned with their club right now as they're 19th in the Premier League and playing some atrocious football. Scoring goals has been a real issue all year and unless reinforcements arrive in January, it's hard to see the Hammers surviving. At least at the beginning of the season they were keeping clean sheets, but injuries and loss of form for their key defenders has seen them ship 16 in their last five fixtures.

Optimists will point to the fact that they have caused a couple of upsets on the road this year - both at White Hart Lane - but this is a different kettle of fish entirely and no matter how hard I try, I can't see anything other than a heavy defeat for the East Londoners.

Man City -2 Goals  

Tipping a home win at very short odds would be the easy thing to do but that's not my style and there is some excellent value in Man City -2 goals. That basically means they have to win by three or more - something which they've done eight times at the Etihad this season - and it's available to back at a huge 2.245/4.

I appreciate that it's the first leg and first legs can often prove to be quite tight affairs, but this is the rampant City we're talking about, at home, against an abysmal West Ham outfit.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals  
Under 3.5 Goals 1.981/1 Over 3.5 Goals 1.981/1

There is only one bet in this market for me and that's Over 3.5 goals. It would have already landed 10 times at the Etihad so far, and in three of West Ham's last five on the road. Normally for a selection like this you fancy both teams to get on the scoresheet, and while I wouldn't completely rule that out, Man City are more than capable of racking up the required amount of goals themselves.

Cash Out  

Given that I have recommended a comfortable home win with plenty of goals, I feel the best cash out opportunity could come in the Correct Score 2 Home market. The scorelines I think could trade much shorter in-play are 5-0 and 6-0, which are currently available to back at around 18.017/1 and 36.035/1.

Don't be afraid if it's only one or two nil by half time, more goals are generally scored towards the end of a game, so get your fingers hovering over the cash out button from around the 80 minute mark as you may have to work fast to secure your profit.

Recommended Bets

Back Man City -2 @ 2.245/4
Back Over 3.5 goals @ 1.981/1