Capital One Cup: Swans are the value for semi-final first leg

It's widely acknowledged that Chelsea boss Rafa Benitez is on borrowed time at the Stamford Bridge helm - but if he's to stake any kind of claim to secure the job on a more permanent basis, he will know that he needs to steal the silverware this campaign. The Blues go into this clash sitting 14 points off the summit of the Barclays Premier League - and this competition offers them the best chance of glory at the moment.

Benitez has already intimated that he requires an injection of new blood into his squad this January , and he started his new year wheeling and dealing with a bang by securing the signature of Newcastle hotshot Demba Ba in time for his sides trip to Southampton in the FA Cup last weekend.

The Senegalese forward notched on his debut to help the Blues to a 5-1 confidence boosting victory - but Rafa insists that the arrival of his new signing does not spell the end for Spanish misfit Fernando Torres. Indeed, the Spanish gaffer is expected to recall his fellow countryman for this Capital One Cup clash. The ex-Liverpool boss has been called many things recently - but one sin that you can't accuse him of is being tactically naive, and one of his first masterstrokes on his arrival at the Bridge was to move shaggy haired Brazilian David Luiz into a midfield anchor role, which enabled the player to have much more of an influence on the game.

The Blues have won eight of the 11 games they have played since Benitez took over - and that is the kind of form that they will need to sustain if they are to make any attempt at rescuing their title challenge in the league.

Chelsea are available at 1.4740/85 for the win in this game, which I think is about right given their home form has seen them unbeaten in 13 of their last 15 in front of their own fans, but let's not forget that they succumbed to a 1-0 loss at the hands of QPR just last week.

But the visitors go into this game under minimal pressure - and will know that anything other than a loss in this clash will put them in the driving seat ahead of the second leg at the Liberty Stadium.

The Welsh club have scored half a dozen goals in their last three games, and with Michu still in eye-catching form, they are more than capable of notching once or twice here - against a home rearguard which has kept just two clean sheets in 11 games.

Michael Laudrup's side failed to win a game on the road between August and December 2011 - but that appears to be a flaw they have ironed out, and the Swans go into this encounter with decent form on their travels. Six unbeaten from seven is impressive by anyone's standards, and when you consider that they have played Arsenal, Newcastle, Liverpool and Fulham in that time, it's clear that the away side possess a confidence away from South Wales.

And a 1-1 draw against Chelsea in their league clash back in October suggests that Laudrup's side have come on leaps and bounds since their 4-1 loss to the Blues in their final meeting of last campaign - and one loss in four trips to the capital this season will give the visitors much confidence of nicking something here.

They are priced at a whopping 8.415/2 for the win in this game, and I think there's heaps of value in that - especially if you're backing with a view to trading out - or the more conservative among you might fancy Swansea +1 at 2.8815/8.

Having hit 15 goals in 10 games, and probably setting themselves up for a draw in this first leg clash, the handicap market could be a big winner for punters.

All eyes will be on 13 goal striker Michu, as the rumour mill hots up with speculation around whether he will still be in South Wales come February - and he is available at 9.28/1 to notch first. However, the Spanish hotshot has hit a whopping 10 of his goals at the Liberty Stadium, and as such I think the value for First Goalscorer could lay elsewhere. Victor Moses, who scored in the league fixture earlier this campaign, is a little short for me at 8.615/2- and I'd be more tempted by the 22.021/1 available on Branislav Ivanovic, who has already hit four this campaign.

For the away side, Danny Graham - who goes into this one having scored in three consecutive fixtures - is available at a huge 12.523/2.

Overall, I fancy a tight game here - with neither side wanting to commit too much and risk going into the second leg behind. Four of Chelsea's last five home Premier League outings having finished Under 2.5 Goals (which is available at a generous 2.526/4 in this game) - with only the 8-0 anomalous victory over Aston Villa breaking that mold. And with three of Swansea's last four away trips ending in the same way, I fancy a low-scoring contest at the Bridge.

Recommended Bets

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.526/4
Back Danny Graham First Goalscorer at 12.523/2