Capital One Cup Final Preview: This might be closer than you think...

Manchester City v Sunderland
Sunday, 14:00 
Live on Sky Sports 1 

Manchester City 

After an irresistible few months characterised by whopping wins seemingly every week, February has not been so smooth for City who have suffered two defeats in five - to Chelsea and Barcelona admittedly - while drawing with Norwich, getting revenge on Mourinho's men and beating Stoke last time out. Their record for the month reads: P5, W2, D1, L2, F3, A3.

Is it a coincidence that their poor run has coincided with Sergio Aguero's latest absence? Well, they coped without him during a 10 game unbeaten run in December and January, but news that Alvaro Negredo and Edin Dzeko have been carrying injuries explains the lack of goals throughout the month and exposes a current weakness in the City side.

Aguero could return for the final, but will he be fully fit? The Argentinian has been world-class this season but he looks increasingly fallible and the health of Negredo, Dzeko or Stevan Jovetic is not entirely clear. All four are fantastic players but none can be relied upon it would seem.

Sunderland

The Black Cats would, on one hand, like to emulate Birmingham in 2011 by defeating illustrious opposition in the final. But, on the other hand, Alex McLeish's side also went down at the end of the 2010/11 and that fate is a distinct possibility for the Wearside club, who sit 18th in the table and trade at 2.747/4 to go down. 

Save for Steven Fletcher, who is struggling for match fitness, manager Gus Poyet has no injuries to deal with and should be able to select his first choice XI. Whether he knows exactly who is in that team is open to question - the Uruguayan was questioning his players after a 4-1 tonking at Arsenal last time out. 

What Poyet can draw on is a good recent head-to-head record against City - Opta tell us that Sunderland have only lost one of their last five games against Manchester City, winning three and drawing once. All those wins came by a 1-0 scoreline.

Match Odds/Asian Handicap/Halftime-Fulltime

No contest, according to the Betfair markets. City are just 1.321/3 to win in 90 minutes, Sunderland are way out at 10.519/2 and the draw is 6.411/2. But those odds are similar to last year's FA Cup final and we all know what happened there don't we?!

For me, there's no value in backing the favourites at that price, especially with doubts over the fitness of the City attack. 

There is no question that Manuel Pellegrini has the superior team, but Sunderland have improved strongly under Poyet. Prior to the Arsenal defeat his team had won seven of the 11 games in all competitions since the turn of the year, and quotes that Poyet fears a Wembley 'embarrassment' can be viewed as a ruse to motivate his players. 

I'm tempted to put up a recommendation of Sunderland but I'm not *that* convinced. Anyone looking to get behind the underdogs in some way might want to look at the Asian Handicap where Sunderland are 2.03103/100 to back receiving a 1.5 goal start. 

Another tactic could be a back of draw/City in the halftime/fulltime market. Might Sunderland be able to hold the favourites for 45 minutes but lose the second half? At 4.84/1 I'm prepared to give it a try.

Under 2.5 Goals 

In recent weeks, City have been held to a goalless draw at Carrow Road and needed a late second-half goal from Yaya Toure to get past Stoke - this is not the same side that lit up the winter months. 

Sunderland have developed a decent defence under Poyet, holding Southampton at bay in the FA Cup and shutting out north east rivals Newcastle in early February. 

Unders is a 2.6213/8 shot and I think that is a big price, it's certainly a potential trade or Cash Out opportunity if that is your thing, though the more ambitious might want to play under 1.5 at 6.05/1. It wouldn't be a huge surprise were City to win this 1-0 or 2-0, while we know that Sunderland love to beat City by a single goal to nil (a scoreline that can be backed at 30.029/1).

I could have it wrong of course - Aguero could be 100% match fit and City might suddenly rediscover their va-va-voom - but recent results point to a tight game, and at the prices I'm willing to build my Capital One Cup punting plan around that assumption.

Recommended Bets 

Back draw/City HT/FT @ 4.84/1
Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.6413/8