Man Utd can achieve the almost impossible
Sir Alex has said that concentration will be key if his players are to overcome Barcelona in Saturday night's Champions League Final. The same applies to those looking for value in the Betfair markets.
How often do you get match odds of [4.1] on Manchester United? We're not sure we've ever seen so generous a price. It's extremely good value and should be snapped up immediately. Barcelona - [2.06] - are a terrific team but they're not unbeatable. They've already lost once in north London this season, going down 2-1 to Arsenal. Sir Alex says his team are ready and we don't doubt it.
It's important to note that match odds apply only to the result within 90 minutes. On a night like this you might well entertain the prospect of extra time and penalties. If so, the Method of Victory market is for you: United are [16.0] to win in extra-time and [14.0] to prevail on penalties. If the match does go to pens then you'll see wild odds fluctuations on Betfair and plenty of chances to cash in.
Much of the pre-match analysis has focussed on how the Reds can stop Barcelona. We prefer to look at it the other way - how are United going to beat Barca?
Sir Alex may yet have a selection surprise up his sleeve but we're banking on a 4-4-2 starting formation. We believe that Javier Hernandez could knock the stuffing out of this Barcelona backline.
We can see the young Mexican flying past the ageing Carles Puyol and we also expect Antonio Valencia to rattle whoever gets the nod at left-back - the Catalans' weakest position. Let's have a bet on both Hernandez and Valencia to score at [4.6] and [9.0] respectively.
The Reds have defended imperiously in this competition - conceding only four in their 12 matches - but we like the look of [2.08] on both teams to score. If you do think Edwin, Rio and Vida can shut out Messi and co then the odds are inviting at [4.1].
United will press high up the pitch with a view to keeping Messi, Andres Iniesta and Xavi in their own half. Ryan Giggs has four Champions League assists this term and will be vital in threading passes to Wayne Rooney and Hernandez.
The Reds are in top attacking form and have started games particularly well, against Chelsea and Schalke, but we believe that this one will be won and lost in the second half. We'll back the second half at [2.1] to be the half with most goals and Draw/Man Utd at [10.0] in the half-time/full-time market.
Long before your correspondent, and many of those who will be watching on Saturday night, was a twinkle in his daddy's eye, a Manchester United side overcame unimaginable adversity to reach Wembley and lift the European Cup with one of the great performances in Reds' history.
On Saturday, 43 years on, it's going to be thrilling, occasionally frightening and possibly furious; we're backing United to win 2-1 at [19.5].
Published: 27 May 2011
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