Andy's Tuesday tips - Man Utd to stay top
In golf majors they call the Saturday "moving day" - the day when those who have made a decent start to the tournament know they need to shoot something low if they're going to be in contention on Sunday afternoon. Week four of the Champions League is a bit like that. Those who are in a good position know that a good result on this matchday can really cement their position in the table and those trailing by a couple of points know that they need to be a little more adventurous than usual rather than leaving all the hard work till the last couple of matches. There are some key fixtures taking place this week, let's try and predict what will happen...
After that early blip when they drew at home to Rangers, Manchester United are now well under way and as predictable as their win over Bursaspor was, their win away at Valencia was a fantastic result. It's put Sir Alex's side in pole position to qualify to the next round and left Rangers and Valencia fighting it out for second place.
Rangers should really have beaten Valencia a couple of weeks ago as they were the better side and had most of the clear-cut chances. It wasn't to be though and, having not made the most of their chances, they then conceded an own goal - all of which means this will probably be the match that decides which of these two goes through.
We know what Rangers' game-plan will be. They'll play a flat back four, there will be plenty of running and closing down in midfield and when they do have the ball they'll try to either get it out wide or play Kenny Miller in behind the Valencia defence. Those are typical tactics of an away side playing against an experienced, technical side but the problem you have is that if you do concede, you may not necessarily have the players on the field to score and get you back in the game.
Walter Smith's side have played well in this campaign and certainly haven't looked out of their depth in the Champions League but I'm not sure they'll be coming back from the Mestalla with anything other than their luggage and a couple of good Spanish meals in their bellies.
Valencia have made a decent start to their European campaign and sit in an extremely respectable fourth place in their domestic league table so they're clearly playing well at the moment. I think they'll be a little too good for Rangers on the night.
Over in Turkey, Manchester United have the ever-difficult task of winning in a hostile environment against a side who at Old Trafford showed they can pass the ball around swiftly and are hard to break down. The visitors know they can't afford to be complacent in this match, both in terms of team selection and their attitude on the pitch.
That said, over the last week we've seen them win three tough matches on the bounce. Okay, a home tie to Wolves in the Carling Cup should really be a formality whichever XI is picked but the point is that all three matches were pretty close for much of the game and on all three occasions Manchester United found that little bit extra which saw them over the line.
Wins by three and four-goal margins aren't what you win trophies. It's matches like that which could go either way that really make the difference. With that in mind, and with the Red Devils looking to have rediscovered that ruthless, killer instinct, I think this is a match tailor-made for them to go out, defend well, score a goal and defend their lead. If they can do that, they're pretty much through to the next round.
Recommended Bets:
Back Valencia to win 1-0 at [7.4]
Back Manchester United to win 1-0 at [7.0]
Back Valencia and Manchester United in a double using the Betfair Coupon at [2.5]
Andy Gray is now on Twitter so follow him for his exclusive tips and his take on the biggest stories in football each week.
Published: 2 Nov 2010
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