Andy's FA Cup tips - Back Man U & Bolton

It's FA Cup semi-final weekend and our top tipster Andy Gray, who of course scored a cup final goal during his Everton days, has had plenty to say about the two matches taking place at Wembley...

Manchester City v Manchester United

Manchester United are rightly favourites to win what should be a fascinating FA Cup semi-final at Wembley. They were excellent in their two Champions League victories over Chelsea while Manchester City were abject in defeat against Liverpool last Monday. But results in the last week might suggest that there's a bigger gulf between the sides than is actually the case.

It's a great shame that Carlos Tevez and Wayne Rooney - the star men on either side - will miss this tie. The Citizens captain would be my player of the year while Manchester United's number 10 looks to have regained fitness and form so the game will be poorer for their absence.

My feeling is that Manchester City will miss Tevez more than Manchester United miss Rooney and Roberto Mancini faces a number a dilemma about how to approach this one. Will he start with two strikers or play five in midfield? Adam Johnson has been playing out wide and I would expect that to remain the case because, at present, neither James Milner nor Shaun Wright-Phillips can really stake a claim to a starting spot.

Edin Dzeko will probably play up front because Mario Balotelli is hardly banging at the door for inclusion. The good news for Mancini is that David Silva and Nigel de Jong are back and both should start. The latter will be important as the Italian attempts to make his team tough to break down.

For all of Manchester City's millions, it's Manchester United who have the stronger options on Saturday. In the absence of Rooney, Sir Alex Ferguson has the luxury of bringing in Premier League top goalscorer Dimitar Berbatov to play alongside Javier Hernandez. He also has the option of swapping one veteran maestro for another with Paul Scholes able to switch with Ryan Giggs in midfield.

Manchester City would love to win this match and reach a final which they would be favourites to win. If they are to do so, they need their big players to perform at their optimum. Their rivals aren't unbeatable, they lost a semi-final to Everton against the odds a couple of seasons ago and it is possible to score against the current team.

They are a different side when Rio Ferdinand partners Nemanja Vidic in defence but the England defender didn't look entirely comfortable against Chelsea in midweek and I'm backing both teams to score here.

The top-four hopefuls will give Sir Alex's men a stern test at Wembley but this Manchester United team are hitting form just at the right time. With a number of key players looking fresh and hungry, I believe they have what it takes to win this derby and reach their first FA Cup Final for four years.

Recommended Bets:
Back Manchester United to win at [2.12]
Back Manchester United to win 2-1 at [11.0]
Back both teams to score at [2.0]

Bolton v Stoke

Is it written in the stars that Bolton Wanderers will reach the FA Cup final in the year that Trotters legend Nat Lofthouse passed away? Betfair punters think Bolton will get there for the first time since 1958 as they expect them to beat Stoke City on Sunday. Saturday's match might be the glamour tie but I'm delighted by this fixture and I think we're going to see a great contest.

I really admire both these managers. Tony Pulis has worked wonders at Stoke and their progress in this competition is a poke in the eye for all those who call them one-dimensional. Bolton have been labeled with that tag too, of course, but Owen Coyle has changed the way they play with great results. He still knows, however, that his side can benefit by hitting the odd long ball up to the strikers and if Bolton need to mix it up they can.

I actually think that the aerial battle will be a massive factor in who wins this one. Free kicks are key for Bolton with Gary Cahill coming up from the back to offer a big threat. Everybody knows what Stoke can do from set pieces but that doesn't mean they can stop them.

Daniel Sturridge has been in fine form and Wanderers will really miss him. The loanee from Chelsea is a good player and the games he's been getting at the Reebok will be invaluable for him. Who knows, maybe you could see a Chelsea front line next season featuring Sturridge alongside Fernando Torres.

Johan Elmander is a decent striker and Kevin Davies can cause problems for any defence. Bolton are equipped to win this one up front but Stoke will give them plenty to worry about at the other end. I anticipate a close contest but I think we could get a few goals.

The pendulum will swing in this one but I've got a theory as to why I expect Bolton to prevail: it's the year of the Scot. Alex McLeish has already been to Wembley and won the Carling Cup with Birmingham and Sir Alex Ferguson has the chance to take Manchester United there in two competitions.

For that reason, and because I believe Bolton are a marginally stronger team than Stoke, I'm backing Owen Coyle to take his men to the final.

Recommended Bets:
Back Bolton to win at [2.54]
Back Bolton to win 3-2 at [36.0]
Back over 4.5 goals at [8.6]

Andy Gray is now on Twitter so follow him for his exclusive tips and his take on the biggest stories in football each week.

Published: 15 Apr 2011

• Facebook
• Digg
• Stumbleupon
• Reddit