Andy's Sunday tips - Liverpool won't lose

Andy Gray offers his expert advice on Sunday's much-anticipated televised Premier League games, in which Arsenal host Newcastle and improving Liverpool welcome champions Chelsea...

Arsenal v Newcastle

I find myself asking the question that must be on Magpies fans' minds every weekend: which Newcastle will turn up?

Last week's 5-1 hammering of Sunderland in the Tyne-Wear derby was the moment Geordies will have dreamed about ever since their side were promoted from the Championship at the end of last season. It couldn't have gone any better but, in a way, Newcastle have been here before. After all, they fired six past Aston Villa in August then lost their next home match to Blackpool and the one after that to Stoke. They must be the Premier League's most unpredictable team.

Regardless of how the visitors perform, Arsenal will put them under lots of pressure. The Magpies' last Premier League match here - two years ago - was the moment when fans realised they might be in for a long season; they lost 3-0 and the club owner was caught on camera downing a pint of lager. Those days are long gone but we could see a similar result.

I don't expect the Gunners' midweek Champions League efforts to have too much of an impact on this match as Arsene Wenger will probably have his key players fresh. Cesc Fabregas gets the plaudits, and rightly so, but I've been particularly impressed by Samir Nasri this season. The French midfielder is first class, full of smart runs and exquisite touches, and if he plays on Sunday, I will be backing him to score.

As we've seen, Newcastle are strong in attack. Kevin Nolan and Shola Ameobi were ruthless against Sunderland and Andy Carroll will be a threat, but Arsenal are stronger at the back than they have been for many seasons, Sebastien Squillaci looks a good signing, and their defensive record at the Emirates is very good. I'm expecting a clean sheet for Arsenal.

Recommended bets:
Back Arsenal to win at [1.31]
Back Arsenal to win 2-0 at [8.6]
Back Samir Nasri to score

Liverpool v Chelsea

This fixture has been one of the Premier League's most intense in recent years and, at one point under Rafael Benitez and Jose Mourinho, there was real animosity developing between the teams. Things have changed now but, even though Chelsea are 12 places above Liverpool in the table, this is still a tough one to call.

Liverpool have won two in a row but it's hard to know if they have turned the corner. We will know a lot more about them after this match. They weren't great in the win over Bolton but the result will have done them the power of good.

Chelsea are the best team in the country but they don't always play like it. They were poor away to Blackburn last time out but they won and, as the cliché goes, the ability to win when you're not playing well at a ground like Ewood Park is something you need if you're going to win the title.

If this match had been taking place three weeks ago I would have been all over Chelsea but now I'm not so sure. It wouldn't surprise me if Liverpool got something from this fixture. Looking at the markets, if you want value then you should back them because there is no way they should be as long as [4.1] - this is Liverpool at Anfield after all.

I can see the home side making a good start - their fans may well inspire them to come out of the blocks fast and something tells me Liverpool may be ahead at half-time. Chelsea are excellent at asserting themselves late on in games though and Didier Drogba has a great record against the Anfield club. He's so good at wearing down defenders and, if he gets a chance, he won't miss. I'm backing Didier Drogba to get the equaliser for Chelsea and earn them a point. Have a punt on Liverpool/draw in the half-time/full-time market.

Recommended bets:
Back the draw at [3.4]
Back the 1-1 draw at [7.6]
Back Liverpool/draw at [19.0]

Andy Gray is now on Twitter so follow him for his exclusive tips and his take on the biggest stories in football each week.

Published: 6 Nov 2010

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