Scotland to exploit Arsenal star's absence

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The Carling Nations Cup has exposed the gulf in class between Scotland, Republic of Ireland, Wales and Northern Ireland as being bigger than most realised, with the latter two in particular struggling to compete with the former in the early encounters in the inaugural tournament.

Northern Ireland were thumped 3-0 by Scotland and 5-0 by Republic of Ireland, so having lost their opener 3-0 to the Boys in Green, it's no surprise that Wales are [3.9] outsiders to get the better of Scotland at the Aviva Stadium in their second game in the competition.

Welsh supporters will point to the outcome of their last collision, in which they defeated Scotland 3-0 in Cardiff 18 months ago to prompt the sacking of George Burley, as evidence that they are being underestimated, however Aaron Ramsey, who ran the show that day, isn't expected to play tonight.

The man Gary Speed made his national team captain looks set to be rested this evening alongside Craig Bellamy and his Premier League stars for Friday's more winnable match against Northern Ireland, despite the fact it will be a dead rubber if they fail to triumph in this encounter.

It's a policy that renders it a slight surprise that Scotland are available to back at [2.12], especially as most predict that Sunday's clash with the hosts will prove to be the decider, but the reason for that is perhaps the Tartan Army's dire record of one draw and four losses in their last five meetings with Wales.

The side that Speed picks won't be anywhere near as strong as those that have been victorious in the past, while Scotland's improvement under Craig Levein means that they are far better than they were when humiliated in the Welsh capital in 2009, so don't be shocked if they win to nil at [3.35].

Wales v Scotland
Kick-off: 7.45pm
Live on Sky Sports 1

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Published: 25 May 2011

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