Back Dinamo Zagreb and Sevilla to qualify
While a few nothing games are inevitable on the final day, there is plenty still at stake in four of the six Europa League groups being wrapped up tonight. ESPN are showing two encounters between teams in second and third scraping for a place in the last 32. Here's how we see both going...
Dinamo Zagreb v PAOK (6pm)
Here's a potential profitable starting statistic - Dinamo Zagreb are the only of the 48 clubs involved yet to play a group match in which both sides have scored, and it's [1.79] for that trend to continue.
The Croatian champions gave a glimpse of how good they can be when beating Villarreal 2-0 in the opening Group D game but have failed to hit those heights since and lost 1-0 in a tie to PAOK in Greece in a match of few chances.
Dinamo need three points to progress and carry the more convincing domestic form into the decider, while the rarity of away clean sheets for PAOK suggests that they'll come unstuck if they try to grind out a bore draw. We fancy the hosts at [1.84] and therefore will back the clean sheet too at [2.32].
Sevilla v Borussia Dortmund (8.05pm)
There's no more appetising game on the continent this evening as one of the biggest teams in the Europa League is certain to bow out - either two-time winners Sevilla or runaway Bundesliga leaders Dortmund.
On recent results, you'd pile most of the money in your account on Dortmund, who must win to go through, at [2.62] as they've delivered seven successive triumphs while Sevilla have lost five on the spin, disproving early optimism that new boss Gregorio Manzano would instantly turn things around.
It's important to look at the wider picture though. Sevilla defeated Dortmund 1-0 in Germany earlier this season and with a Champions League push in La Liga already appearing unlikely, the cups - as is often the case for the Rojiblancos - offer their most likely route to success.
Dortmund's European form has been nowhere near as impressive as their dominant domestic standard - their only victory in four coming against pointless Karpaty. Would elimination really leave them distraught? With a first Bundesliga title in nine years in sight, we think not. Back Sevilla to get the draw they require at [3.85], and under 2.5 goals at [2.16].
Got any bets of your own lined up for these fixtures? Share them below...
Published: 15 Dec 2010
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