Goal-shy Koln set to surprise Hoffenheim
Koln's start to the season hasn't been as bad as their points tally of four points from five matches suggests, and they had beaten St Pauli and held Bayern Munich at the Allianz Arena without conceding before falling foul of currently unstoppable league leaders Mainz in midweek.
A lack of goals remains the primary problem for the Rhineland club, who average less than one a game, and even though Lukas Podolski - of 41 goals in 81 international appearances fame - is already halfway to matching his 2009-10 tally of two league strikes, it looks like they could spend another year looking nervously over their shoulders rather than pushing for a first top-half finish in 19 years.
Podolski was recently given the chance to lead the line in the absence of Slovenia striker Milivoje Novakovic, having previously been deployed in a deeper role, and he expects coach Zvonimir Soldo to keep the experiment alive over the next few weeks.
Koln are [3.6] to trip up Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga's Friday night TV tie and our hunch is that it's a good bet. The visitors may be third in the table but after winning their first three, they've dropped five points this week, drawing with Kaiserslautern and then losing late on against Bayern Munich.
Ralf Rangnick's side - who stunned Koln 4-0 in this fixture last term, only for the three-time German champions to gain revenge with a 2-0 triumph away to Hoffenheim in April - have followed just one of their last 11 defeats with a victory, so this is a major test of their character.
Given the Koln combination of unprolific attack and fairly resilient defence, under 2.5 goals also holds appeal at [1.88], while the statistics support a wager on the hosts leading at half-time and full-time at [6.8] - they've been ahead at the break in both of their home league games to date.
Koln v Hoffenheim
Kick-off: 7.30pm
Live on ESPN
Expect Hoffenheim to bounce back tonight? Then back the away win at [2.26]...
Published: 24 Sep 2010
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