Bet of the Day - Luton set for tight first leg
Day 180: We're backing under 2.5 goals when Wrexham host Luton at [1.78]
Two former Football League clubs collide in the first Conference play-off semi-final and opinion is divided as to whether Wrexham or Luton will seize the advantage, with little separating them in the betting. Instead, we think under 2.5 goals is the standout wager for this evening's clash at [1.78].
Wrexham have had some eye-opening results at the Racecourse Ground this campaign, the most staggering being their 7-2 loss to Gateshead in February, however the majority of those have come against bottom-half sides, whereas their meetings with other teams at the top have been cagier.
Five of their six regular season encounters against their play-off rivals featured two goals or fewer, including both showdowns with Luton, who they defeated 1-0 at home then held to a 1-1 draw away just last Saturday. In total, eight of their 11 home games with top-half competitors had under 2.5.
Luton meanwhile have been the second stingiest team in the division on their travels behind champions Crawley and the Hatters have kept an impressive nine clean sheets in their last 14 matches on the road, scoring more than once on only two occasions in that entire period.
There is also a precedent for these end-of-season fixtures being incredibly tight, with most clubs urging caution with a place in the Football League at stake. Last year's four semi-finals produced a combined six goals, with Luton failing to score in either of their two ties against York.
Our bet: We're backing Wrexham versus Luton to produce under 2.5 goals at [1.78], meaning that - before factoring in commission - we stand to win £7.80. The same punt pays only £6.66 with SkyBet. Sign up for a new account now and have your first bet of up to £25 refunded if it loses.
Published: 5 May 2011
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