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Hawk Eye on West Indies v India Third ODI: Test of discipline for punters

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Ed Hawkins says Rohit Sharma and Shai Hope should get another chance to top score in Port of Spain on Wednesday...

"Evin Lewis is a threat, though, as discussed in the match preview. He is seeing it like a beach ball and striking it like a golf ball"

Kohli versus Rohit again

Three times in the Twenty20 series we identified Virat Kohli as too big for the amount of times he won the top-bat market. Three times he failed, twice from positions of infinitesimal odds-on with only a few to get for the win. Sod's Law, then, that it was he who downed Rohit Sharma for honours in the second ODI at the Queen's Park Oval after we identified him as too short.

Kohli's century in India's easy win earned him the man of the match award and a cut on the tops market for the repeat match in Port of Spain. He is now 2/1 with Sportsbook. Rohit is out to 16/5. One of those players has an 8.7% swing in the punters' favour from actual to true price (how often he wins). Hint: it's not Kohli. The great man is too short by four percentage points.

The shortening of Kohli means Shikhar Dhawan, Rohit's opening partner, has been pushed out to 4s. That's value by 3.6% on implied probability. Dhawan is overdue, one could say, and he is difficult to predict because he is never really in or out of form. Suddenly he comes to life and then goes quiet again.

Kohli is 5/1 with Sportsbook for another match gone. That's out by one point considering his haul over his career.

The audacity of Hope

We will keep faith with Shai Hope, the West Indies No 3, for a top-bat win here. He has been lengthened in price to 16/5 and it's a price move we cannot ignore. Our data suggest he should be more like 11/5.

Evin Lewis is a threat, though, as discussed in the match preview. He is seeing it like a beach ball and striking it like a golf ball. He probably deserves more respect on the market because he appears to have mastered sluggish wickets. Sportsbook still go 4s. On two-year data he is a 6/1 chance but he has had one tie in that period, too.

Chris Gayle, who has a combined 15 runs from 55 balls in the series is not a hot pick on any filter. Sportsbook go 10/3 when he's more like 9/2. There's an opportunity to short Gayle runs at 24.5 with 5/6 on offer. He is going below that mark 51% of the time in the last two years. Do bear in mind, though, that we don't believe he will be on such a go-slow this time. He will try to be belligerent and blasting from ball one.

We do have a soft spot for Jason Holder, though. He was 17s for game two and is now down to 14s. He is, statistically, a 9/1 chance. Best to keep stakes sensible, though. It's more than irritating that Roiston Chase is going in ahead of him at No 5. Hopefully the Windies switch the two round.


Ed Hawkins,

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