Ed Hawkins previews the final group game of the Vincy T10 Premier League from Arnos Vale on Friday...
"They’re ponderous at the death and Breakers are expert at keeping things tight so it is hard to see the numbers going our way"
Salt Pond Breakers v Dark View Explorers
Friday 29 May 17:30
TV: live on YouTube (search SPB v DVE)
Breakers on course
The Salt Pond Breakers got back on track on Thursday after suffering their first defeat of the tournament at the hands of La Soufriere Hikers. It was a nervy win, though, against Grenadine Divers who really should have won.
Breakers' batting, ordinarily so dangerous, were kept down to 92 and they then were behind the eight ball as Asif Hooper tucked in. It's not the first time Breakers have been under pressure defending but, to their credit, they come up with the goods at the death.
While Sunil Ambris and Kadir Nedd have grabbed the headlines for their destructive hitting, they can boast four bowlers all with an economy rate of under seven. .
Probable XI Ambris, Nedd, U Thomas, Strough, Johnson, Walker, John, Sween, Stapleton, Harry, Hector
Grim for Dark View
Dark View Explorers have been a major disappointment in the Vincy Premier League. Yet despite having won only two from seven they remain in contention for a semi-final spot.
A defeat for Grenadine Divers against Botanic Garden Rangers and a win for the Explorers would seem them make the last-four. Had they not suffered the ignominy of defeat by Fort Charlotte Strikers, previously winless, on Thursday they would be in pole position.
They have not scored more than 86 batting first. This is their issue. And a surprising one because Lindon James, the skipper, and Deron Greaves came into the tournament with strong numbers. Kody Horne, another hitter, has also disappointed.
This batting frailty was exposed again by Strikers. The Explorers just don't see to have an acceleration button and they were never in the hunt for 92.
Possible XI Greaves, Hooper, Thomas, James, Horne, Barnum, S Williams, Edwards, Matthews, Strough, Joseph
Explorers could come up short
The first-innings scores (most recent first, 1-2 denote match won by team batting first or second) at the Vale so far read: 79-2/92-1/92-1/105-2/80-2/103-1/101-1/73-2/98-1/86-1/84-1/104-1/132-1/114-1/104-1/66-2/88-1/109-1/75-2/70-2/68-2.
There is a 66.6% toss bias for the side batting first. This is interesting because pre-tournament, there was a 67% toss bias for the chaser in all previous T10s. The trend buster has to be the wicket, which has seen three matches a day now and must sure-ly be making it tougher for the chaser.
In T10's short history scores of 100 are enough 60% of the time. But bust 110 and a team wins 80% of the time. But in the Vincy bust 84 and you win 100% of the time. With Explorers so flaky with the willow and Breakers expert at a squeeze, going under 80 for first-innings could be a play if the toss goes our way. We'll look to get a lay in-play.
Before this competition there had been six T20 internationals played at Arnos Vale between June 2013 and September 2014. The first-innings scores (most recent first, 1-2 denote match won by team batting first or second) read: 111-tie/101-2/92-2(first three all women's matches WI v NZ)/135-1/152-2/81-2.
No fun on match odds
The Breakers are [1.56]. It's surprising they are not more inline with the Hikers' price to beat the Strikers. Explorers are [2.72].
Ordinarily we'd try to make a case for a trade but we're not fussed about outing faith in Explorers. They're ponderous at the death and Breakers are expert at keeping things tight so it is hard to see the numbers going our way.
Cricket...Only Bettor: The trends and key stats for the Vincy Premier League
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Lay DVE for 80 or more first-innings runs in-play at [1.80]