Ed Hawkins thinks the leaders could come under pressure at Arnos Vale on Thursday if they chase
"Is that our edge? Probably. If we don’t fancy them in a chase and Breakers are so adept at posting totals, we’ll look for an opportunity with Divers batting first"
Grenadine Divers v Salt Pond Breakers
Thursday 28 May, 15:30
TV: live on YouTube (search GD v SPB)
Divers need a run
The Divers are another unconvincing outfit in this competition. They have won only twice - and both of those came against Fort Charlotte Strikers.
On Wednesday they beat the Strikers by 31 runs after posting 103 for five. That sort of batting power has been few and far between but it is not beyond them. They just need to get their batting order right.
Finally they promoted Alex Samuel to a position where he can do real damage - No 3. And Asif Hooper, who has to be one of the more consistent all-rounders in the tournament, returned to the opening slot. Hooper and Obed McCoy give them four solid overs - and the other bowlers aren't too shabby - so the issue has to be about implementing plans and tactics.
Probable XI Harper, Hooper, Samuel, S Browne, Richards, R Browne, Pope, McCoy, S Roberts, Pierre, B Browne,
Before Salt Pond Breakers's clash with La Soufriere Hikers - which surely was a dress rehearsal for the final - we suggested that their greatest enemy was complacency.
At the innings break there was no hint of the upset to come after, true to form, they had busted 100 for the third time in four. Sunil Ambris, with 32 from 14, and Kadir Nedd, 46 from 31, did the damage.
The eight-wicket reverse they suffered could be put down to taking their foot off the gas, Equally, it could be explained by the sort of one-off innings that can make the short forms so unpredictable. Salvan Browne's 68 from 32 may serve Breakers well in time as a reminder of the jeopardy of T10.
Probable XI Ambris, Nedd, U Thomas, Strough, Johnson, Walker, John, Sween, Stapleton, Harry, Hector
The first-innings scores (most recent first, 1-2 denote match won by team batting first or second) at the Vale so far read: 105-2/80-2/103-1/101-1/73-2/98-1/86-1/84-1/104-1/132-1/114-1/104-1/66-2/88-1/109-1/75-2/70-2/68-2.
Runscoring looks to be getting easier. But, in fact, Salt Pond Brekaers are finding it easier than anyone else so that skews the numbers somewhat. If they bat first they should bust 100 again.
In T10's short history scores of 100 are enough 60% of the time. But bust 110 and a team wins 80% of the time. More than 80 in this tournament has been enough in the Vincy 100% of the time.
Before this competition there had been six T20 internationals played at Arnos Vale between June 2013 and September 2014. The first-innings scores (most recent first, 1-2 denote match won by team batting first or second) read: 111-tie/101-2/92-2(first three all women's matches WI v NZ)/135-1/152-2/81-2.
Cheeky Divers trade
Breakers are 1.511/2 with Divers 2.809/5. We're going to have to make a case for the latter at what are huge odds for the T10 format.
We are puzzled as to why the Divers have struggled so. They have good players. Hooper has been fantastic, as we have consistently said, and boasts an economy rate of just 6.54 for the tournament. Alongside McCoy, Geron Whyllie and Razie Browne that's an attack which all performers go for fewer than eight.
They are, however, unreliable in the chase and their failure to get over the line with the game in their pocket against the Hikers was astonishing.
Is that our edge? Probably. If we don't fancy them in a chase and Breakers are so adept at posting totals, we'll look for an opportunity with Divers batting first.
Cricket...Only Bettor: The trends and key stats for the Vincy Premier League
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l
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Trade Divers from 2.809/5 to 2.1011/10 bat first in-play