Ed Hawkins suggests the Breakers should not be troubled by the Explorers at Arnos Vale in the Vincy Premier League on Tuesday...
"Explorers have shown profligacy in the field and their batting has been flaky. We might consider them had they shown a string suit in one discipline or the other but it seems unwise to start playing 2.447/5"
Dark View Explorers v Salt Pond Breakers
Tuesday 26 May 15:30
TV: live on YouTube (search DVE v SPB)
Dark View Explorers kept their play-off hopes on track with a come-from-behind win over Grenadine Divers on Monday. They looked down and out but somehow conjured a victory.
Defending 86, the game looked gone with Divers in the driving seat at 58 for three in the sixth. Only seven an over was required. The turning point was the dismissal of Alex Samuel who liked winning the match on his own. He had hit 20 from seven. Deron Greaves provoked a mistake and Divers, well, sunk without a trace.
Lindon James and Sealron Williams, who took three wickets, squeezed the life out of Divers while Darius Martin once again proved to be one of the top pacers in the tournament.
Probable XI Greaves, James (wkt), Joseph, Thomas, Horne, Hoyte, Strough, Hooper, Joseph, S Williams, Martin
The Breakers are four wins from four and there can be little doubt that the match odds market had made up its mind about their ability before their match against Botanic Garden Rangers on Monday - they were in the 1.608/13 region.
If there was any doubt about their power and guile look at their run rate - a whopping 2.5. They have recorded the highest score of the tournament (132) and busted 100 another time.
Against Rangers they dished out a beating. Sunil Ambris, who is beginning to motor, was in the runs again as 104 was chalked up. They then restricted Rangers to just 55.
Probable XI Ambris, Nedd, Hector, Walker, Johnson, Sween, Thompson, Stapleton, Layne, Harry, Strough
The first-innings scores (most recent first, 1-2 denote match won by team batting first or second) at the Vale so far read: 86-1/84-1/104-1/132-1/114-1/104-1/66-2/88-1/109-1/75-2/70-2/68-2.
So we are reassessing the pitch and the trend for sides chasing to dominate this format. Remember, we had a 67% bias in the four-year-old format before a ball was bowled in this competition. It has not held up.
It could be that after an initial trend for the chaser, wear and tear on the surface with three games a day has taken a toll. And it is now much better to be batting first. There is less pressure batting first and when the run rate is creeping up second time, a wicket always seems to be more tricky.
In T10's short history scores of 100 are enough 60% of the time. But 1120 and a team wins 80% of the time.
Before this competition there had been six T20 internationals played at Arnos Vale between June 2013 and September 2014. The first-innings scores (most recent first, 1-2 denote match won by team batting first or second) read: 111-tie/101-2/92-2(first three all women's matches WI v NZ)/135-1/152-2/81-2.
Hoping for price to break
If any team is going to upset the Breakers, it would be a surprise if it was Dark View Explorers, who are probably still scratching their heads as to how they managed to win against Divers last time out.
Explorers have shown profligacy in the field and their batting has been flaky. We might consider them had they shown a string suit in one discipline or the other but it seems unwise to start playing 2.447/5 when there's little to hang our hat on.
Therefore we'll be hoping for a little drift on the Breakers at some point to a price we're more comfortable with taking. About 1.804/5 should do it. We'll keep them on side batting first as they did look unsure in their chasing effort first up
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Back Breakers 1.804/5 in-play bat first