Ashes Third Test Betting: Mentally broken England on a hiding to nothing at the Waca

Ed Hawkins
11 December 2013

Johnson will tear into England again

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Ed Hawkins cannot see any way back for Alastair Cook's team from Thursday night on a WACA surface which should open historic and current wounds...

"In the past, English batsmen have found the steepling bounce and lighting track so difficult to comprehend that they have failed to post more than 350 in 13 efforts"

Recommended bet
Lay England for 350 or more first-innings runs at 2.001/1

Australia v England
Start time: 02.30GMT Friday
TV: live on Sky Sports 2

Australia
Australians pride themselves on an ability to squeeze the life from an adversary once it is in their grip so it will be interesting to see whether the hosts tinker with their line-up. Nathan Lyon, the spinner, might not be much use at the venue. In the top 33 wicket-takers at the WACA only two of them are spinners, and one of those is the legendary Shane Warne. So they could add to the pace attack which has harangued and humiliated the English batsman by picking James Faulkner. That would strengthen the batting, too. Darren Lehmann will almost certainly resist changing a winning formula but they have options.

England
The scorecards and series score all give a good indication of just how thoroughly bruised and beaten England are. But so does their team selection. They don't know what their best team is and they look certain to chop again. It is the sign of an insecure camp when the team changes every Test. England are unlikely to play two spinners and one from Monty Panesar or Graeme Swann will go. Panesar is most vulnerable because he can't field and his batting is inferior. With the ball they have been equally awful, though, averaging 99 each. So that frees up a spot for Tim Bresnan, Chris Tremlett (discarded after Brisbane), Steven Finn or Boyd Rankin. The latter two have seen their stock fall since landing in Australia which is some nadir.

First-innings runs
The average first-innings score in the last 10 years is 307, which is pretty low and not music to English cauliflower ears. In the last three Tests their batsmen have been blown away and no team has posted more than 268 first up. With England struggling so badly with the blade it is an obvious wager that we lay them for 350 or more in their first-innings. In the past, English batsmen have found the steepling bounce and lighting track so difficult to comprehend that they have failed to post more than 350 in 13 efforts. Their average total in that period is 202.

Match odds
There is nowhere in the world where England would least like to play than Perth. Here's why. But to be succinct: the conditions are hopelessly alien and they have lost eight from 12 Tests, winning once. It is a surprise then to see Australia as big as 1.738/11. England are 3.7511/4, which has shortened up, and the draw is 6.205/1. Throughout the series we have said that England would come back stronger and harder. Yet despite that, Perth was always pencilled in for a home win. This was the one surface which was guaranteed to play into Australia's hands. As it is they have been so aggressive and, well, good that they should comfortably tear England apart again. Like a baby with a soggy mince pie.

England have already suffered at the WACA on this tour. Warning signs were there in the very first game when a guest XI posted 451 for five and then only Alastair Cook, Ian Bell and the departed Jonathan Trott impressed. Coach Andy Flower expects England to improve in Perth but they could hardly be any worse. They are mentally shot. Mitchell Johnson is giving them hell and with 36 wickets in Perth in just five games, he will be gunning for them again. Johnson, with 17 wickets in the series, is 2.56/4 to be top bowler in the first innings.

Top Australia runscorer
Good news for England: Michael Clarke averages only 37 at the WACA. Bad news: David Warner averages 74. Warner, who hit 180 against India, leads his skipper by one in the runs charts in the series and gets a 5.14/1 quote. Clarke is 4.47/2. Otherwise the Aussie batsmen were embarrassed by South Africa's pace on their last visit, losing by 309 runs.

Top England runscorer
When Ian Bell made 87 in the second innings at Perth in 2006, it was a crumb of comfort for a woeful England side. He was the next big thing, everyone said at the time. He is almost there seven years later and that ton in the warm-up game will ensure he has plenty of support at 5.309/2. In 2010, when England lost but won the series, only he and Andrew Strauss passed 50.