Latest Score: Australia 60, England 274-4
Though the job still needs completing, England fans can celebrate regaining the Ashes following a truly remarkable day at Trent Bridge. Australia need a miracle after suffering one of the most humiliating sessions in their cricketing history, bowled out for 60 in just 18.3 overs, with Stuart Broad taking eight wickets for 15 runs, his best ever Test figures.
The game and series looked over by lunch, after which Joe Root rubbed salt into Aussie wounds with an unbeaten 124. Realistically, the only live questions remaining in this match concern how long there is left. Already 214 ahead with six first wickets remaining, England are on target for around a 400 lead, which would leave them heavy odds-on for an innings victory.
450 or more is the par band in the England 1st Inns Runs market, and that will be comfortably within range if they can avoid losing wickets early on, particularly Root. As we saw today, the overhead conditions are pivotal at Trent Bridge. Given a clear forecast, I'm backing the England middle-order and tail to steam ahead and enjoy themselves. With Mitchell Johnson again ineffective, the Aussie bowling looks light and one could forgive their heads going down in this humiliating situation.
When Australia come to bat again, my plan is to assess the overhead conditions before deciding on their run-line. If sunny, this is a good batting pitch and I'll be interested in taking anything around [2.0] on them bettering 300 for their 2nd Inns Runs. Expect at least one of their top batsmen to salvage some pride.
The other interesting live market is Test Match End, regarding which session the match will be decided. Currently [1.6] is the quote about a finish within three days, and it's very hard to argue with that odds-on estimate.