With England hanging on to the Ashes by their fingertips, Paul Krishnamurty looks towards the final day at the WACA, updating his positions and analysing a trio of interesting side markets...
"Forecasts also predict very strong winds up to 65kph, so many of these showers will probably miss the ground. I suspect we will actually get a stop-start day - which is ideal for the Aussie bowlers. 50 overs should be plenty to bowl England out."
Latest score: England 403 and 132-4, Australia 662-9 dec
Match Odds: Australia 1.47, England 470.0, Draw 3.1
The inevitability of Australia regaining the Ashes grows stronger by the day but they are being made to wait. For a brief moment there seemed a chance they would win this test and take an unassailable 3-0 series lead with a day to spare, before some timely rain kept England and draw backers hopes alive.
When England lost their fourth wicket, Australia were matched at just 1.15 to win the test. Now they are out to 1.47 and given a generally grim forecast for the morning, could well drift further in the short-term. Fundamentally, the accuracy of those forecasts is what we're betting on now, because the case for England batting out even half tomorrow's scheduled 98 overs is pretty thin. So before playing, check these three forecasts for the WACA and any others you can find.
Weather Forecast 1
Weather Forecast 2
Weather Forecast 3
There is clearly a consensus that we will see rain in the morning so the chance of a delayed start is high. Were the morning session to be lost, the draw may even go favourite. Likewise if first innings centurions Dawid Malan and Jonny Bairstow start well, the market will afford them plenty of respect, regardless of the fragile tail below them.
Fear of this scenario led me to cover the remaining risk in my earlier pro-Australia position, as advised on Twitter. Equally, I recommend greening up the two positions advised here earlier on Australia at 2.14, and laying the draw at 2.26.
However whilst I recommend caution in light of what *might* happen in the morning, I must reiterate earlier scepticism about betting on rain. Those forecasts also predict very strong winds up to 65kph, so many of these showers will probably miss the ground. I suspect we will actually get a stop-start day - which is ideal for the Aussie bowlers. 50 overs should be plenty to bowl England out.
Three other markets are worth following during the final day. First, I've already advised a bet on England 2nd Innings Runs on Twitter, which is slightly ahead on current prices. My next move is to go the other way, laying England to get 275 plus at 2.2 for 9 units - thus creating a 'middle' between 250 and 275. My total risk on the bet is one unit, to win a potential 19. This new under 275 position is also recommend for anyone new to the market.
Our Test Match End market is another that revolves around the weather. Day 5 Evening was last matched at 1.7 but that looks very dependent on rain. Top England 2nd Innings Bat is another exciting heat with three vying for favouritism. James Vince is leading on 55 but in the shed, with Malan 27 behind but not out.
Recommended bet and updated advice on earlier positions
New bet: Lay England to get 275 or more 2nd Innings Runs 5u @ [2.2]
Cash out these existing positions, each banking 2 units profit
Laid the draw 8u @ 2.26
Now back the draw 6u @ [3.1]
Backed Australia 5u @ 2.14
Now lay Australia 7u @ [1.49]