Ashes Third Test Day 2 Tips: England keep the series alive but will need plenty more runs

Paul Krishnamurty
14 December 2017

Dawid Malan is England's first centurion of the series

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Hope springs eternal for England's Ashes strugglers after Dawid Malan and Jonny Bairstow rescued them from the brink. Can they stay in front and dominate the Test? Paul Krishnamurty updates the state of play...

"England's 3.42 run-rate is very noteworthy regarding the trajectory of this match, because it makes a result more likely...I can see this being one of those matches where the draw trades very short in-play - it's currently clear favourite - only to be out of the equation by the final couple of sessions."

Lay (oppose) the draw 8u @ 2.265/4

Latest score: England 305-4

Match Odds: Australia 4.3, England 3.05, Draw 2.24

At 131-4, early in the afternoon session on the opening day, reeling from a highly controversial Australian review had dismissed Mark Stoneman, England's Ashes hopes were all but dust. A 5-0 Aussie series whitewash had traded at 3.185/40, it's lowest mark yet. There was simply no better time for Dawid Malan and Jonny Bairstow to produce the visitors' best partnership of the series.

As a result, England have transformed their position in this match. If this pair can see of the second new ball and take the partnership beyond 200, they could soon set up a position where they can't lose. Whether one trusts their tail to do so after the way they've collapsed during the series is another matter, but they can at least proceed with confidence.

To say that England recovery blindsided me is a gross understatement. With four down, a one-sided affair felt inevitable so I recommended a big 50 unit odds-on bet on Twitter. The fact I will also land a sixth straight innings runs winner if England get to 350 barely compensates. From here, I'll be looking to cash that bet out taking a loss although that strategy makes no sense right now.

First outright bet on the 3rd Test, from @paulmotty. Backed Australia 50 units @ 1.6. England are nowhere near a competitive total and fast run-rate makes a result very likely.
? Betfair Exchange (@BetfairExchange) December 14, 2017

Opening bet of the 3rd Test - backed England to score 350+ 5 units @ 2.1. A big ask on form in the series so far but it will only take an early partnership or two for the par score to rise. #Ashes
? Betfair Exchange (@BetfairExchange) December 14, 2017

Australia still very much have a route to victory. This pitch looks like being an absolute road for at least three days. A couple of early strikes with the new ball and England could be all out for 400. I confidently expect Australia to pass 400 in their first innings and will advise bets accordingly on Twitter when they start. WACA pitches tend to last the full distance and a record 414-4 was chased in the final innings a few years ago.

However I'm not over-excited about their current odds, given the possibility that England put the match safe tomorrow. A preferable trade is to lay the draw at 2.265/4. England's 3.42 run-rate is very noteworthy regarding the trajectory of this match, because it makes a result more likely. Australia are likely to at least equal that, moving the match along quickly.

I can see this being one of those matches where the draw trades very short in-play - it's currently clear favourite - only to be out of the equation by the final couple of sessions. Consider a couple of plausible, fairly batting-friendly scenarios. England all out for 420, followed by Australia on 550, would mean the third innings starting by the end of day three. So would England 500, then Australia 400.

It's hard to see how the draw trades that much shorter than 2.265/4 over the next couple of days and, if there's a spate of wickets at any stage, it will likely drift markedly.

Recommended Bet

Lay (oppose) the draw 8u @ 2.265/4

Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty and follow his live Ashes commentary @BetfairExchange