Ashes Second Test Day 4 Tips: Smith's follow-on blunder revives English dreams of a miracle

Paul Krishnamurty
04 December 2017

James Anderson celebrates the early wicket that gave England hope

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Australia retain firm control the second test but a flurry of late wickets has opened the possibility of an England victory that seemed unimaginable. Paul Krishnamurty looks at the state of play...

"By batting again instead, Smith handed those swing-friendly conditions to England's bowlers, opening a path to victory that didn't exist. As those four wickets fell, so did England's odds from a totally dismissive 80.079/1 to a not impossible 14.5."

Latest score: Australia 442-8 dec & 53-4, England 227

Match Odds: Australia 1.132/15, England 14.5, Draw 19.018/1

Captains are never allowed to forget the toss decisions that go wrong, so we can expect Joe Root's legitimate call to put Australia in first will be over-analysed for decades to come. The best the England captain can hope is for it to be overshadowed by an equally dubious decision from his opposite number.

Going into the dinner break, this match was all over, as we awaited the end of another dire England innings, leaving them over 200 runs behind. There seemed absolutely no way back. Steve Smith would enforce the follow-on and watch his bowlers make hay under the lights against demoralised batsmen. Game over in no more than three sessions.

By batting again instead, Smith handed those swing-friendly conditions to England's bowlers, opening a path to victory that didn't exist. As those four wickets fell, so did England's odds from a totally dismissive 80.079/1 to a not impossible 14.5.

Smith also spared us what would have been a dull spell in the match, simply waiting for Australia to declare. If Shaun Marsh and the tail repeat their first innings heroics, in much easier batting conditions, they could still completely take the game away from England. If they get that far, I reckon the declaration would come around 235, thus leaving a 450 target.

At 53-4 though, that scenario is a long way off and these Aussie batsmen will restart under real, unexpected pressure. If England could claim the last six wickets for no more than 100, a target of 367 would be daunting, yet plausible given the time left in the match. They would be a lot shorter than 14.5 to win the match.

So is the miracle on? Whilst their match odds may well shorten, it is extremely hard to see England scoring even 300 batting last. Two of their sessions would be under lights. In 24 hours time, I doubt Australia will be much bigger than 1.132/15. They may even have won - 16 wickets including two tails in one day is realistic. When the time comes to bet on England's second innings, I will be repeating the successful strategy from their last two innings of backing unders. The precise details will be announced on Twitter when the market goes live.

If you do want to get with England's bowlers, a better plan not involving miracles would be to play the Australia 2nd Innings Runs market. The 150 and 175 plus bands are both available to lay at odds-on 1.321/3 and 1.84/5 respectively.

Another interesting market at this stage of the game is Top Australia 2nd Innings Batsman. This is wide-open with only Usman Khawaja's 20 to beat. Marsh and Peter Handscomb are vying for favouritism around 3.3512/5 but don't rule out the bowlers either. Let's have a combined interest on Mitchell Starc at 14.013/1 and Pat Cummins at 18.017/1. Both are bound to have a late slog and by the time they arrive at the crease, that 20 target may not have been passed.

Recommended bets

Back Mitchell Starc to be Top Australian 2nd Innings Batsman 0.5u @ 14.013/1

Back Pat Cummins to be Top Australian 2nd Innings Batsman 0.5u @ 15.014/1

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Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty and follow his live Ashes commentary @BetfairExchange