The Ashes Fourth Test Betting: Baby steps for limited England

Ed Hawkins
24 December 2017

Malan looks a decent price for top bat

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Ed Hawkins looks for improvement in Joe Root's team in Melbourne on Christmas night with Aussie pacer Mictehll Starc out injured

Recommended BetTrade England 5.69/2 to 1.910/11

Australia v England
Sunday 25 December 23.30
TV: live on BT Sport

Australia

Australia are without Mitchell Starc, who has pulled out of with a bruised heel and will probably miss the rest of the series.

Starc said "I'm playing" in the immediate aftermath of the Perth victory celebrations. That he isn't means Australia are not too fussed about 5-0 or that they reckon England are so shot they'll secure the whitewash without him.

Jackson Bird is his replacement. At 31 he's played eight Tests with a strike rate of 51. But more important than numbers are angles - Australia will miss Starc's left-arm bullets.

Otherwise Australia are unchanged. The addition of all-rounder Mitchell Marsh, as we said before Perth, has made them stronger and they have a terrific balance now.

England

There have been only two positives on tour for England - Craig Overton and Dawid Malan. It sums up England's trip that Overton is injured for the MCG, suffering a fractured rib just when he was beginning to look at home at Test level.

Overton sustained the injury when he dived on the granite Waca surface, another example of England's fragility on Australia decks. Mark Wood or Tom Curran are likely to replace him.

Wood would be the better addition for punters. He will give them something they have lacked - pace. And worries about his ability to last the course seem irrelevant when the series has gone. England have no choice but to play chance.

Curran, though, looks like getting the nod. He doesn't have Wood's speed but he has impressed in the nets. Mason Crane, the untried leggie, is the left-field pick.

Root, perhaps getting his excuses in early, said the wicket looked like a batsman's paradise. It's dry, though, which is why Crane is being considered. It could crumble late on then. There has been only one draw in the last ten.

Match odds

Australia are 1.664/6, England 5.69/2 and the draw is 4.57/2. The big question here is whether the hosts are worthy of support without Starc, who has taken 19 wickets.

They are used to being shorn of his skill and pace, of course. Since his debut in 2011 Starc has missed 32 Tests but Australia still won 18 of them, losing eight. They have lost two of their last three, though.

England will be delighted. They have said consistently - and James Anderson rather foolishly repeated it this week - that Australia's bowling lacks depth. Now is the time to put up.

That's a wager in itself. Can England even compete? They are yet to take 20 wickets and have 'won' just two days all series.

At least they have a decent record in Melbourne, winning four of the last nine. The temperatures should be cooler, too although cloud cover is limited.

Betting 1.68/13 shots is not our business so we want to find a way to take better odds. A possibility is the 2.962/1 that England get a first-innings lead. Essentially you're betting them to win half the match.

There might also be room in England's price for a trade. If they can put a bowling performance together and get some top-order runs then they should become favourites. A trade worked on first-innings in Perth.

It's tricky to bet them full, though, because there is no evidence they can win here. Form (recent and historic) and morale is low.

Top England runscorer

Joe Root was humiliated (again) this week when Ricky Ponting said he looked a like a "little boy". Getting stick from a man who lost an Ashes series with Warne and McGrath in his ranks must rankle but Ponting had a point. Perhaps Root will break free of the shackles with the series gone. He is 4.216/5. Malan, who has been excellent, is 6.86/1 and it's a new two-horse race it seems with Alastair Cook gone at the game.

Top Australia runscorer

Steve Smith and David Warner both hit tons in last year's Boxing Day Test at the 'G. Smith is 3.45 and Warner 4.67/2. Mitchell Marsh is 9.28/1 following his Perth ton.

Ed Hawkins P-L

2017: +20.5pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l