Latest score: England 233-5
Match Odds: Australia 1.69, England 4.7, Draw 5.0
After losing two wickets in the final few minutes of play at the SCG, England are odds-on to suffer a humiliating 4-0 series defeat. However as they have in every other test, the visitors must be wondering how on earth they've ended up on the wrong-end of such a one-sided scoreline.
In this final test, they won what looks an extremely important toss and started well. At 88-2, they appeared to have done the hard part and were set to make hay on a batting paradise, only to lose two key quick wickets out of nowhere. No matter. Joe Root and Dawid Malan would recover the situation with a 133 partnership and, just ten balls before the end of play, England had assumed favouritism. Australia were the outsiders of three when taking the second new ball.
Those last ten balls have transformed the match. When they resume in the morning, England now need at least another 200 runs to reach a competitive total. The next man in, Moeen Ali, is enduring a miserable tour and after that, there is only a longer than usual tail. 350, let alone the desired 450, suddenly looks a very long way off.
Those wickets were also a disaster for yours truly and provide a classic lesson about timing a cash out. I was literally hovering over the lay button, looking to take all the risk out of several positions advised on Twitter, when Root lost his wicket in the penultimate over. Greed stopped me from pressing it - or, more charitably, lack of sleep impaired my judgement.
They'd already passed the mental targets I'd set - a 100 partnership or being able to lay 400 plus 1st Innings Runs at odds-on. Waiting til the end of play didn't seem a big risk - but of course with hindsight, what difference could have been made? Why wait for three tricky overs against a new ball?
The upshot is those once promising positions are - while far from dead - behind. I'll be looking to get out of all them, flat, as quickly as possible once play starts tonight. Hopefully 20 or 30 runs without losing any more wickets will get us there. Any cover bets will, of course will be advised on Twitter.
My view is that those late blows might just kill off their resistance. Australia will likely bowl them out without adding too many more runs, then make swift progress on a pitch that is offering hardly anything yet. By day four, they will be chasing a massive first innings deficit in much tougher scoring conditions. It could well be the most one-sided match of the series yet.
Therefore my advice to anyone just starting their book is to pile in on Australia at 1.69 - I doubt we'll see even money again for this match. There may also be some value in the Test Match End market, which seems to under-rate an early finish. In particular, I like the last two sessions on day four - for which the combined odds pays around 3.5. Taking them now should set up a solid trading position for the rest of the match.
Back Australia to win the 5th Test 10u @ 1.695/7
Back Day Four Afternoon in Test Match End 3u @ 8.07/1
Back Day Four Evening in Test Match End 4u @ 6.25/1
**All Twitter bets to be updated in-running. These are not new advice.**
Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty and follow his live Ashes commentary @BetfairExchange